Atlantic Tropical Disturbance to Bring Dangerous Rain, Flooding to Central America This Weekend
Trouble is brewing in the tropical Atlantic this weekend. This enhanced infrared satellite photo is aimed at developing low pressure in the western Caribbean and Central America.
The area of disturbed weather that has become the Atlantic's first tropical depression of the 2010 season will bring thunderstorms, torrential downpours, and the risk of flooding to portions of Central America and southeastern Mexico this weekend.
A broad area of low pressure will continue to bubble and brew over the western Caribbean Sea this weekend. As it does, big, slow-moving, repeating thunderstorms will fire over the water and nearby areas from Nicaragua to Mexico's Yucatan.
While the developing situation is of great concern to the Gulf of Mexico early next week, the immediate concern for these countries in the tropics is that of life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.
Upward of half a foot of rain can fall in localized areas. Where this rain falls on mountainous areas and hillsides, rapid runoff can turn small streams into raging torrents and lead to major river flooding.
The red area on this graphic indicates where AccuWeather.com expects the center of circulation from the tropical system to be on Monday.
The magnitude of the rain and flooding problems will depend on how quickly the tropical disturbance strengthens.
The worst-case scenario for some of these areas would be if the mess becomes Tropical Storm Alex "before or while" crossing the Yucatan Peninsula this weekend.
Daytime heating, combined with excess tropical moisture, will still fuel the thunderstorms over land areas even if the system patiently waits until Sunday night or Monday along the northern or western coast of the Yucatan.
As far as the storm track is concerned for early next week in the Gulf of Mexico, computer models still vary significantly from a path ranging from the Florida Panhandle to Tamaulipas, Mexico.
Some computer models even stall the storm over the west-central Gulf next week.
Climatology favors the northern track. However, the weather patterns right now favor a path toward the upper coast of Mexico or Texas with landfall late Tuesday into early Wednesday of next week.
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Daily U.S. Extremes
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| Extreme | Location | |
|---|---|---|
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| Low | 29° | Mullan Pass, ID |
| Precip | 1.17" | Chapel Hill, NC |
WeatherWhys®
People need to pay close attention to the UV index during this time of year. On a sunny day late in the spring and into the summer, the UV is usually at least an 8, which is very high. Readings over 11 are considered extreme values in which only 10 minutes of full exposure to the sun will produce a sunburn.
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New Hampshire (1814)
A tornado crossed Merrimac, Litchfield, Londonderry and North Chester. The same storm produced hailstones that had an 11-inch circumference and weighed 1/2 pound.
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More rain in an already wet month. Monthly totals topped 11 inches at New York City, 9 inches at Bridgeport, Conn., and 8 inches at Baltimore (all three totals set records for May).
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