Alex Poses Dangerous Flooding Risk in Mexico, Central America
This is an enhanced infrared satellite photo of Alex taken late Saturday afternoon. Much of the red area indicates intense thunderstorms.
As Tropical Storm Alex pushes northwestward, it will continue to unleash tremendous thunderstorms, torrential downpours, and flooding to portions of Central America and southeastern Mexico today.
Big, slow-moving, repeating thunderstorms will fire over the water and nearby areas from Honduras, Guatemala and Belize to Mexico's Yucatan, Chiapas, Campeche, Quintana Roo and Tabasco states.
Daytime heating, combined with excess tropical moisture, will fuel the thunderstorms over land areas, while the tropical nature of the system will brew thunderstorms over nearby waters. A circulation around Alex will drive the ocean-bred thunderstorms onshore.
While the developing situation is of great concern to the Gulf of Mexico early next week, the immediate concern for these countries is that of life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.
Upward of half a foot of rain can fall in localized areas. Where this rain falls on mountainous areas and hillsides, rapid runoff can turn small streams into raging torrents and lead to major river flooding.
Saturated hillsides could give way leading to sudden, unstoppable mudslides.
Alex is likely to weaken a bit through the end of the weekend as it continues to move over the Yucatan Peninsula. However, flooding rain will continue and an expected persistent northwest track will bring it back over the warm waters of the Bay of Campeche this evening.
Renewed strengthening of Alex is expected over the southwest Gulf of Mexico early next week. Alex is forecast by AccuWeather.com to become a strong tropical storm or hurricane before a second landfall next week on a track favoring a more westward, rather than northward movement.
The size, strength and track of Alex over the southwest Gulf of Mexico next week will determine the amount of rainfall and the nature of flooding in the Vera Cruz, Nuevo Leon and Tamaulipas states in Mexico and perhaps the southern part of the Texas coast of the U.S.
While Alex is still being pushed steadily along by stronger-than-usual easterlies, as the storm moves more to the northwest with time, the tropical easterly flow weakens and could result in decreased forward speed of the storm from mid- to late week. Hence, the continued concern for flooding.
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| Extreme | Location | |
|---|---|---|
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| Low | 29° | Mullan Pass, ID |
| Precip | 1.17" | Chapel Hill, NC |
WeatherWhys®
People need to pay close attention to the UV index during this time of year. On a sunny day late in the spring and into the summer, the UV is usually at least an 8, which is very high. Readings over 11 are considered extreme values in which only 10 minutes of full exposure to the sun will produce a sunburn.
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