AccuWeather.com

By Meghan Evans, Meteorologist

Jun 29, 2010; 7:00 AM ET

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This satellite image from early Tuesday morning shows strengthening Alex churning over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical Storm Alex is nearing hurricane strength as it continues to churn over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. After reaching hurricane status late Tuesday, Alex is expected to keep strengthening, perhaps reaching Category 2 status, Wednesday before making landfall south of Brownsville, Texas, in northeastern Mexico on Wednesday night.

While the track and strength of Alex is still not set in stone, there is likely to be significant impacts with flooding rain and damaging winds in northeastern Mexico and southern Texas prior to and after landfall. Coastal flooding will also be a concern for areas as far north as Galveston, Texas, Wednesday night into Thursday.

Current Stats on Alex

As of 2 p.m. CDT, the center of Tropical Storm Alex was located roughly 320 miles southeast of Brownsville, Texas, with maximum sustained winds of 70 mph. Alex is moving to the northwest at 13 mph.

A hurricane warning remains in effect for the Texas coast from Baffin Bay southward to the mouth of the Rio Grande River and for the Mexican coast from La Cruz northward to the mouth of the Rio Grande River. In addition, a tropical storm warning remains in effect for the coast of Texas from Baffin Bay to Port O'Connor.

The severity of Alex's impacts on the United States are completely dependent upon its track and where it makes landfall. A landfall farther north in Texas can still not be entirely ruled out. If Alex were to make landfall farther north, its impacts would be greater on Texas and lesser on Mexico.

Flooding Rain, Coastal Flooding Potential with Alex

With the current expected track of Alex, coastal flooding and life-threatening flooding from heavy rain are likely in the Mexican state of Tamaulipas, especially in northeastern parts of the state close to the Rio Grande Valley, as well as deep southern Texas.

Areas near and just north of the point of landfall will be hardest-hit with a projected storm surge of 3 to 6 feet. Coastal flooding can occur with gusty winds even as far away as the Louisiana coastline. Galveston is included in coastal cities that could deal with coastal flooding.

Rainfall amounts of 5-10 inches are expected in deep southern Texas and northeastern Mexico with locally higher amounts, especially in higher elevations, through Thursday. The slower forward movement of the storm that is expected could mean upwards of 2 feet of rain over some areas by the time the storm finally exits the region.

According to AccuWeather.com Expert Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski, the subsoil throughout the Rio Grande Valley is abnormally wet right now as a result of above-normal rainfall this past winter and spring. Most recently, the region experienced flooding following a heavy rain event about three weeks ago.

With the subsoil being so wet, flooding will take place much more easily and quickly in deep southern Texas than it otherwise would.

The potential for severe flooding and mudslides will extend farther inland through the Mexican state of Nuevo Leon by late Thursday or Friday morning.

Locally heavy showers and thunderstorms that could result in flash flooding will also occur across the western Gulf Coast, again including coastal areas as far away as Louisiana.

Damaging Winds Potential

Since Alex is expected to reach Category 2 status with winds between 96 and 110 mph prior to landfall, wind damage is also likely along the coast of northeastern Mexico and extreme southern Texas.

The highest winds will blast areas just north of the storm's center at landfall, along the far northeastern Mexico coastline, threatening significant damage to homes and businesses.

Hurricane-force winds are expected to impact Brownsville, Texas. Unprotected windows could be broken, while siding and roof damage can also occur.

Tropical storm-force winds will impact areas farther north through Corpus Christi, Texas.

Other Impacts

As hurricanes make landfall, they often spawn tornadoes along and to the right of the storm's path. This puts far northeastern New Mexico and coastal Texas at risk for twisters as Alex makes landfall.

Content contributed by Heather Buchman, AccuWeather.com Meteorologist

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