Fall 2011 Forecast Region by Region

August 19, 2011; 6:32 AM ET
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Here is a quick look at what to expect this fall region by region:

Northeast and Lower Midwest

-Dry and warm September from the Great Lakes into the Northeast

-High brush fire threat will develop from northern New England into eastern Canada

-Wet October for mid-Atlantic

-Cold shots will start reaching the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley in November

-Severe weather threat will develop from western Ohio Valley into northeastern Texas from late October into early November


-Tropical impacts expected through September

-Still wet in October from the Carolinas into Florida

-Gulf Coast and Florida dry out late October through November

Northern Plains and Upper Midwest

-Frost and first snow expected to be on time or just a week early in September/early October

-Colder-than-normal conditions focused from eastern Montana to Nebraska early, then cold air intensifies and expands eastward across Midwest late

-Cold and snowy November will bring a quick onset of winter

Southern Plains

-September's severe weather zone will include Kansas and Oklahoma with thunderstorm activity keeping temperatures down

-Severe weather threat will increase again from northeastern Texas into western Ohio Valley late October into November

-Turning drier and warmer in October and November

-Texas will remain warmer and drier than normal throughout the season

Southwest and California

-Warmer than normal across the Southwest and interior California

-Spotty monsoon thunderstorm activity early in the season from Upper Deserts of California into Southwest

-Rainfall, on average, will remain below normal

-Warming for California coast in November


-Dry start to the season but precipitation trending near normal by October

-Not as wet or as cool as last year

-Near- to slightly above-normal temperatures early, then turning cooler than normal along Washington and Oregon coasts and in northern Rockies

More details on snow, cold, severe weather and tropical activity this fall


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