The AccuWeather.com 2012 Summer Forecast calls for beneficial rain for the Northeast. However, the rain may come at the cost of active severe weather and a possible tropical system hit.
Many communities in the Northeast have endured a dry March and April, and for some it has been dry since the beginning of the winter. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, areas from Boston to New York City and Philadelphia are being gripped by moderate to severe drought conditions.
Flames jump the roadway in Suffolk County, N.Y., as a roaring brush fire threatens homes and commercial buildings on Long Island, Monday, April 9, 2012. (AP Photo/Robert Garofalo)
The dry conditions have increased the wildfire risk across portions of the Northeast this spring. Warmth and gusty winds further contributed to the threat for wildfires to burn across New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania back in late March and into April.
Until beneficial rainfall returns to the Northeast, there will be an elevated fire risk.
Since Jan. 1, 2012
Since Jan. 1, 2012
Paul Pastelok, leader of the AccuWeather long-range forecasting team, has forecast above-normal rain for much of the Northeast this summer. The rain may be enough to put a dent in or reverse the drought.
"Even if we get near-normal rainfall during June and July, then above-normal August rain, that would cause a significant dent in the drought," Pastelok said.
For the mid-Atlantic, the rain may come with the risk of active severe weather. Portions of Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland and Virginia are included in the zone expected to get rounds of severe weather this summer.
Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Atlantic City and Baltimore may be in the path of volatile storms at times.
While any rainfall is beneficial for drought-stricken areas, threats such as damaging wind gusts, hail and isolated tornadoes could have an impact as well, especially earlier in the season. There may be a transition to heavy rain events later in the season.
The thunderstorms will fire along the northern rim of heat, dominating over the Plains and South. This type of storm setup is often referred to as the "ring of fire" by meteorologists.
The nature of the thunderstorms will be hit-or-miss, so some cities and towns could receive beneficial rainfall while others remain dry.
Meanwhile, the East Coast will also be vulnerable to a tropical system hit during the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season, especially by late in the summer or in early in the fall. The AccuWeather.com Long-Range Forecasting Team believes this is a possibility due to the fact that the steering currents in the tropics may be directed toward the East Coast at times.
By August, the Atlantic ridge is generally strong, and if it is positioned over the central Atlantic while a trough of low pressure is expected to dominate across the Great Lakes and Appalachians, then the East Coast would be open for a direct hit from the tropics.
Hurricane Irene shortly after making landfall in Cape Lookout, N.C., on Aug. 27, 2011. Image from NASA/NOAA.
"Even if a tropical system hits the Carolinas, there is a possibility that rain from the system could reach into Northeast. You can get more than 5.00 inches of rain from one system, which equals nearly two months worth of rain," Pastelok added.
A major Thanksgiving Day storm threatens to ruin holiday events across the Central states with flooding rain, snow, a glaze of ice and fog.
Sandra remains on track to target northern Mexico Friday and Saturday, but it should be much weaker at landfall than its current major hurricane status.
Unsettled weather will stretch across the United Kingdom on 27th November as millions set out in search of the best Black Friday deals on offer.
Winterlike conditions will continue disrupt travel across the Intermountain West leading up to Thanksgiving.
Compared to Thanksgiving Day in 2014, this Thanksgiving will be substantially warmer in the Northeast.
Wet weather will stretch from Texas to Michigan and could impact shoppers and slow travel during Black Friday.
Astoria, Or (1998)
5.56 inches of rain fell, setting a new all-time record. the previous rainfall record was 4.53 inches from January 9, 1966.
Great Appalachian Storm (24th-26th) developed greatest wind force, deepest snow, most severe early-season cold in history of the Northeast: 18.8 inches of snow at Akron, OH; Youngstown, OH, had a maximum 24-hour snowfall of 20.7 inches and a maximum single storm total of 28.7 inches; Steubenville, OH, had a maximum single storm total of 36.3 inches; Pittsburgh, PA, had a maximum 24-hour snowfall of 20.1 inches and a maximum single storm total of 27.7 inches; and Charleston, WV had a maximum 24-hour snowfall of 15.1 inches and a maximum single storm total of 25.6 inches. At coastal stations such as Newark and Boston single-minute wind speeds in excess of 80 mph were registered. There was a 108 mph gust at Newark. Peak gusts of 110 were noticed at Concord, NH; 108 mph at Newark, NJ; and 100 mph at Hartford, CT. Atop Mt. Washington, a wind gust of 160 mph hit from the southeast early on the 26th. Central Park, in the heart of sheltered Manhattan Island, set an 80-year record of 70 mph.
Wilkes-Barre/ Scranton (1971)
Heavy snowfall in the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton area. It started to snow the night before, and by about noon Thanksgiving Day 11/25/71, 20.5 inches of snow was reported on the ground at the Avoca, PA airport. Some of the surrounding areas had even more snow. Dallas, PA, had 27 inches and parts of the Poconos had as much as 30 inches. Barn roofs collapsed, power lines were downed, and tree branches were broken. The majority of the snow fell within 12 hours.