AccuWeather.com

What You Need To Know About Hurricane Earl

Sep 2, 2010; 8:59 AM ET

UPDATE: I am also updating a story on the current Earl stats (buoys, radar, satellite, etc.) for AccuWeather.com today, as well as adding cams to the East Coast Webcam list.

DISCLAIMER: This blog may not be updated. For the latest official forecast maps and video for Hurricane Earl from us, access AccuWeather.com or our Hurricane Center.

Today is going to be a long day here at AccuWeather.com HQ as we track Earl up the East Coast. I can't remember (at least since I've been blogging) seeing Tropical Storm and Hurricane advisories all up and down the East Coast. The following map illustrates that from our MapSpace product:

Model-wise, the bulk of the tracks are still keeping it off the coast, which is good news for residents. However most of the strength models are suggesting that he will still be at least a Category 3 storm (maybe 4) when he gets to near Cape Cod (we are projecting a 2). This makes me think that the surprise, if there is one from the storm, may be the amount of damage in that area.

The media is continuing to overhype the storm in general, assuming the track does not shift west. Since the east side of the storm is the most powerful, and the storm is moving fast, we could end up with most people not seeing rain or even damaging wind.

For example, Fox News said Tuesday night that "Eleven states are evacuating." Well, no. Eleven states have advisories, but only the Outer Banks has required evacuations, and there only for visitors. I think that it's unlikely we'll see further evacuations outside of Cape Cod.

CNN last night predicted the Outer Banks would be split in two and this morning said that "millions will be without power." Millions don't even reside in the path of this storm. CNN also said the wind would "roar" through Washington, D.C.; our forecast advises: Breezy with gusts to 35 mph.

The winds from the National Hurricane Center (quoted at 145 mph) are estimates, and are rarely measured by ground instrumentation. They are also usually found on the east side of the storm, and tightly packed in the eyewall, so it's almost guaranteed that we won't see anything close to that on land, and we might not even see hurricane force (74 mph sustained) winds on land, though the Outer Banks and Cape Cod are the most likely locations to get it.

That said, I would not want to be in an oceanfront house anywhere from North Carolina to New England tonight or tomorrow night. Waves are going to be the bitg story up and down the coast. Anyone on the coast of NE NC, SE VA, eastern Long Island, or the tip of Mass., or any barrier island, should be evacuating now, if only to get away from the waves.

Other oceanfront residents should be ready to evacuate OR battle big waves and overwash in the middle of the night. It's better to be safe, than to wake up at 3 AM with waves cutting out your bottom floor. Highway 12 on the Outer Banks will be overwashed and could take some damage, as could the oceanfront homes there. Cape Cod will also take a battering from wind on trees (remember they don't usually have leaves when the Nor'easters come through) and houses and could be without power for days.

Keep an eye on my East Coast Webcams page this evening, although the worst of the storm will hit after dark, both tonight for North Carolina and tomorrow night for Cape Cod.

Vacationers who are planning to return to the Outer Banks and Cape Cod this weekend should be aware that, while the storm may be over, power may be out and roads may still be closed. And for goodness sakes, folks, stay out of the water through the weekend. These waves are no joke and rip currents are running rampant.

If the storm tracks west of the current forecast track, the story could be much more devastating and it's the responsibility of the media to mention that possibility, but not say it is what will happen.

The storm is in no man's land as far as Buoys -- only one buoy would get a direct hit and it is currently in for maintenance (went adrift in May). It is indicated by the red square offshore below on NDBC's map. So it will be somewhat difficult to get ground-level information on the storm's strength as it approaches.

The storm is starting to be picked up by the North Carolina radars. The local site to watch will be Morehead City, NC with Wilmington as a backup.

Join me on Facebook and Twitter for further updates on Hurricane Earl... If you have questions, comments (or eventually photos or videos) of the storm, send them to AccuWeather.com on Facebook or chat amongst yourselves with other weather enthusiasts on the AccuWeather.com Forums!

Thanks to AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Mark Mancuso for the tips about the trees on Cape Cod and the New Bern storm surge.

Jesse Ferrell