Ugh... I had to spend all my time forecasting for Yankee Territory today. It's a good thing things are relatively quiet in the South. Cold, but mostly quiet. How cold is it? Well, the afternoon temperatures in Virginia and the Carolinas are running mostly in the 40s and low 50s, more typical of December and January. Also, it did indeed snow for a while today in the mountains in West Virginia, and at lower elevation than I thought, down to 3500 feet. I suspect the higher peaks around there have a couple of inches on them.
In general, the chilly air mass is going to hang on for another day or so in the Southeast, but temperatures are going to moderate. Later this week, one front after another will move through, spaced out every couple of days. The air masses behind the fronts won't be as cool as the one we're dealing with now, but cool enough to knock temperatures back for a while. The farther east you are, the cooler it can get. But, the cool will only last a day before warmth surges northward ahead of the next front. So, temperatures will be on a roller coaster. The fronts won't have much moisture returning in front of them, so don't expect much rain.
Most of the area west of the Mississippi will miss out on the fronts, which will stall near the Arklatex. So, it will get progressively warmer and more humid back in Texas. Eventually, it will get summery again by the end of the week. The warmth and humidity will fuel some big-time thunderstorms when the next significant storm reaches the area over the weekend. The storm in question is an upper low west of California now. It looks as though it will cause storms later Friday or Friday night in West Texas, then into Oklahoma and North Texas on Saturday. Of course, the timing is uncertain this far out. But, the computer models are showing enough shear to be worried about a tornado outbreak. For now, I don't see another big shot of cold coming for a while, in fact, the end of the month looks pretty warm.
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TD4 is the main item of interest now, I expect it to be a near miss for the Southeast Coast but that's not guaranteed. Meanwhile, cooler air is pushing into the Southeast while the heat hangs on for a while longer west of the Mississippi.
Two videos tonight, one for the tropics and especially the Atlantic situation. Meanwhile, the heat is about to get beaten back some in the Southeast while areas west of the Mississippi keep baking.
The heat in Texas and Oklahoma will expand east this week and there can be lots of rain in the battle zone between it and cooler air up north. Meanwhile, we have several tropical critters to watch.
Here comes another cool front that will get way farther south than it should in August. The front will cause more rain and storms. There are a few interesting things in the tropics, but it's quieter down there than before.
A stationary front will cause soaking rains in the Southeast for a while. South and west of the front, it's rather hot, especially in Texas. Another front arrives next week with cooler and drier air.
Heat is building back in Texas and Oklahoma but will get beaten back in much of the Southeast as a front moves in and stalls. The stationary front will give some of y'all a lot of rain, but details are uncertain.