Ugh... I had to spend all my time forecasting for Yankee Territory today. It's a good thing things are relatively quiet in the South. Cold, but mostly quiet. How cold is it? Well, the afternoon temperatures in Virginia and the Carolinas are running mostly in the 40s and low 50s, more typical of December and January. Also, it did indeed snow for a while today in the mountains in West Virginia, and at lower elevation than I thought, down to 3500 feet. I suspect the higher peaks around there have a couple of inches on them.
In general, the chilly air mass is going to hang on for another day or so in the Southeast, but temperatures are going to moderate. Later this week, one front after another will move through, spaced out every couple of days. The air masses behind the fronts won't be as cool as the one we're dealing with now, but cool enough to knock temperatures back for a while. The farther east you are, the cooler it can get. But, the cool will only last a day before warmth surges northward ahead of the next front. So, temperatures will be on a roller coaster. The fronts won't have much moisture returning in front of them, so don't expect much rain.
Most of the area west of the Mississippi will miss out on the fronts, which will stall near the Arklatex. So, it will get progressively warmer and more humid back in Texas. Eventually, it will get summery again by the end of the week. The warmth and humidity will fuel some big-time thunderstorms when the next significant storm reaches the area over the weekend. The storm in question is an upper low west of California now. It looks as though it will cause storms later Friday or Friday night in West Texas, then into Oklahoma and North Texas on Saturday. Of course, the timing is uncertain this far out. But, the computer models are showing enough shear to be worried about a tornado outbreak. For now, I don't see another big shot of cold coming for a while, in fact, the end of the month looks pretty warm.
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The holiday weekend looks mostly nice east of the Mississippi and mostly stormy west. After that, here comes summertime.
Most of the South will see it turn quieter and cooler for a while starting this weekend. But, we may still see some trouble down the road coming out of the tropics.
The next few days will bring some tornadoes to the southern Plains states.
While we will see freezing temperatures in parts of the Southeast the next couple of mornings, later this week it will warm up and finally there is no more serious cold in sight.
The next few days look generally less stormy and the main concern is becoming cold it will get the next few nights.
Here's an update from the other day, in general not much has changed with south and west Texas staying relatively busy for a while and a chilly shot headed to the Southeast.
Frank Strait
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