Well, it's still pretty murky over parts of the Southeast this evening, but at least the sun finally came out farther west and warmed things up some today. Still, Raleigh's and Charlotte's high was more typical of early December. We should, however, finally get some sun into these areas tomorrow.
Not much has changed since yesterday. Two largely moisture starved fronts will cross the Southeast over the rest of the workweek, blunting the general warmup that we will see over the next few days. The coolest air will stay north although I remain concerned that the last high coming down will get wedged in Friday and perhaps Saturday in the Carolinas and Virginia.
The drier air is filtering into Florida, as promised. The state looks mostly rain free through Friday except for some easterly flow showers along the east side of the peninsula, mostly south of the Space Coast. South Florida will see an influx of moisture this weekend, areas farther north likely stay dry.
No significant moisture should reach the Southeast until at least Sunday, Monday for some areas.
West of the Mississippi, things will be different. Fronts are only going to get so far south and west before stalling because of and upper ridge of high pressure that will grow over Texas this week and then drift eastward. Persistent southeasterly winds in this area will gradually moisten things up and warm things up as well. It will be almost summery in a lot of Texas, but farther north and east it can get unsettled as the fronts move in and stall. There can even be a few strong storms in Oklahoma and Arkansas.
The main concern remains the storm we'll be dealing with this weekend, though. Currently, it's spinning west of San Francisco and through Thursday, it will mosey it's way southward and then eastward through the deserts. It will start to cause problems in Texas and Oklahoma Friday afternoon with some severe storms breaking out, but I think the worst of the severe weather is going to hit Saturday in the Plains. The area from North Texas to eastern Kansas and western Missouri will be the main area to worry about, and I fear that tornadoes will be included.
We still have a few tropical critters to watch, too.
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First, a brief bit about the trouble spots for the next few days, then it's time for me to open up to you about something personal.
West Texas, areas toward the East Coast and parts of Florida see the most widespread rains the next few days while it stays mostly dry elsewhere through this weekend.
Extreme rain through this weekend will cause flooding in the Carolinas; it's not really nice anywhere near the East Coast. Fortunately, it's nice elsewhere for now. The tropics remain active.
While it looks likely at this point that Joaquin goes out to sea, we still have a setup for parts of the Southeast to see some extreme rainfall.
Several separate storm systems will affect the South over the next several day with most of the action in the Southeast.
A big surge of moisture and perhaps a depression or storm will be heading into the Southeast early next week, while most areas west of the Mississippi remain warm and almost summery.