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Watching Potential Tropical Activity in Gulf of Mexcio

By Alex Sosnowski, senior meteorologist.
June 5, 2014; 1:35 AM ET

An area of disturbed weather over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is going nowhere fast this week but will bring unsettled conditions for days to the region.

Clouds, showers and thunderstorms have replaced sunshine in the vicinity of the Yucatan Peninsula and much of southern Mexico this week versus last week.

This enhanced image was taken by the NOAA GOES-EAST weather satellite Wednesday morning, June 4, 2014.

Moisture and a broad area of low pressure are forecast to continue to hover over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, known as the Bay of Campeche this week into next week.

According to AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski, "We do not see any significant tropical system forming in the Bay of Campeche this week."

The area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico has been competing with former tropical system Boris nearby on the Pacific side of Central America.

Boris has since made landfall and weakened to no more than just a plume of disorganized rain and storms over Mexico. However, this moisture may help aid in future development in the Bay of Campeche.

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The combination of the Gulf and Pacific features will bring an uptick in tropical downpours in part of southeastern Mexico, Guatemala and Belize. While some rain is needed in the region, the potential for flash flooding would increase into the weekend as rainfall accumulations ramp up.

"There is a small chance that the low pressure area over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico could become organized into a tropical system next week," Kottlowski said.

"Until then, high-level disruptive winds will prevent rapid development of the system in the Gulf."

Low-level steering winds are very light in the region and would tend to keep any low pressure area bottled up in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through this week.

Until then the area will be affected by clouds, sporadic heavy rainfall and isolated gusty thunderstorms but explosive tropical development on the Atlantic side is not likely.

The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of AccuWeather, Inc. or AccuWeather.com

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