Posted below is my winter forecast for the snow departures. The two above-normal areas are based on two storm tracks. One along the East coast and another through the Plains and Great Lakes. The forecast is based on..
1. Neutral ENSO event, i.e. no El Nino or La Nina
2. Blocking staying on through the winter
3. A positive PNA pattern
The blocking so far this fall has been more extensive than this time last year which means if it continues, we will see more big storms developing along the East coast. I expect we will see at least one blizzard on the magnitude of the 2010 NYC storm.
To me, it's a wild weather pattern that will be ongoing into this winter, one that will bring snow and shots of cold weather.
Speaking of cold weather, after Thanksgiving, the GFS is showing several shots of very cold weather coming into the Eastern part of the country. The Euro weeklies also agree that the last week of November and the first two weeks of December will be below normal in the eastern part of the country. Lake-effect snow should get going, and we will need to see how the blocking plays out for any snowstorm potential.
Here are the scenarios for the track of the tropical system.
Scenarios with our tropical system. Severe storms for the Midwest today.
We may see the tropics get active and produce a storm next week. We could see a storm approaching the US Gulf Coast by the Labor day weekend.
The pattern will bring heavy thunderstorms today and Wednesday. Video reviews the areas where the storms will hit.
No widespread severe weather just a few across the Midwest today.
The pattern is going to switch from the trough in the East to a trough in the West. That means warmth!