Henry Margusity

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Winter Snow Forecast, Plus the Cold is Coming

November 16, 2012; 11:14 AM

Commentary

Posted below is my winter forecast for the snow departures. The two above-normal areas are based on two storm tracks. One along the East coast and another through the Plains and Great Lakes. The forecast is based on..

1. Neutral ENSO event, i.e. no El Nino or La Nina

2. Blocking staying on through the winter

3. A positive PNA pattern

The blocking so far this fall has been more extensive than this time last year which means if it continues, we will see more big storms developing along the East coast. I expect we will see at least one blizzard on the magnitude of the 2010 NYC storm.

To me, it's a wild weather pattern that will be ongoing into this winter, one that will bring snow and shots of cold weather.

Speaking of cold weather, after Thanksgiving, the GFS is showing several shots of very cold weather coming into the Eastern part of the country. The Euro weeklies also agree that the last week of November and the first two weeks of December will be below normal in the eastern part of the country. Lake-effect snow should get going, and we will need to see how the blocking plays out for any snowstorm potential.

The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of AccuWeather, Inc. or AccuWeather.com

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Henry Margusity
AccuWeather.com severe weather expert, Henry Margusity, offers the Meteorological Madness blog including detailed analysis of severe weather across the US.