The weather pattern to me looks rather wild next weekend and there after. As the current storm moves away, another storm will develop next week and could be another major one for the northern Plains. The models seem to be having a hard time with the next storm. The GFS for example had a blizzard in the Dakotas on the 00z run and moved it north into Canada on the 6z run. The Euro does not develop the storm until it heads into northern Ontario, so there is quite a difference. I would probably go with the idea that a storm develops over Minnesota and could bring snow to the Dakota's late next week.
I did read the NOAA story about the El Nino challenge for this winter. I actually agree with the story that the El Nino is having a hard time coming about and that we may face more neutral conditions going through winter. If that were to happen, I think the result will be snow for the Northeast and even some snow in the Midwest. I will be doing my winter forecast soon and will be factoring in the ENSO conditions.
Erika will have many issues this weekend includng tracking over the islands with big mountains.
Erika will track into the Bahamas and may intensify early next week. Track could bring it close to the U.S.
Erika's path and intensity over the next five days is the concern of the day.
We continue to watch the tropics as now we have a new storm.
The weather this week across the country will be calm, but we still have Danny out there lurking later this week.
Active day of severe weather across the Upper Midwest Satruday afternoon.