Commentary on the Storm Next Week and Pattern
1. The models have trended west with the storm overnight and to me that doesn't really make much sense. The NAO is negative now and will go even more negative prior to Dec. 1. It makes more sense to me that somehow the storm manages to get to the coast and intensify. It may happen either by the storm going on the more southern track as shown on the map below or the storm stays on the track into the eastern Great Lakes and secondaries along the coast. For now I am sticking with the swath of snow potential with a storm going on the southern track.
2. The pattern overall looks wild going into December. The cold is coming and the storms are certainly going to be around, so we could be dealing with a lot of winter weather heading through the first two weeks of December.
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Texas style storms today with a threat of tornadoes
The storms that develop will produce damaging winds and hail this week.
The next two weeks will be nasty with severe weather and tornadoes.