1. ECMWF still catching on to the secondary sooner then GFS and NAM. Still like the ECMWF solution ont he snowfall.
2. Tornado outbreak for Louisiana into Mississippi and Alabama looking more likely as operational models going toward convection developing in the warm sector xmas afternoon.
1. First, the severe weather outbreak from eastern Texas to Alabama is looking very bad with the potential for tornadoes, some large and long-lived. Storms should start across eastern Texas late Monday night or Tuesday am and move east into Louisiana, Warm sector comes in and if storms become more supercell in nature, we could have a major outbreak of tornadoes, wind damage and hail. Looks very nasty to me.
2. The GFS and Euro seem to be in a battle over the secondary storm. Snow will start in Oklahoma and head northeast. Still thinking that many people are going to get a big snow event. GFS probably too far west with the storm, so thinking that ECMWF solution is the bets solution with storm coming north and secondary storm takes over off the Mid-Atlantic. Below are the Euro snow totals and the GFS P-TYPE maps.
Saturday 11am - NAO is going positive which might explain why the GFS is trying to cut one center up west of the mountains and reforms the next center along the coastal Plain. Either way, it's still a big storm for someone, just means adjusting where the snow area will go. For now, I like what I have in regards to the snow area shown yesterday.
Saturday 7am - Latest operational models remain is a good agreement that the storms are coming next week. May have to make adjustments to the xmas eve storm by bringing snow south into Philly and NYC suburbs. Below is the Euro snow map for both storms.
Severe weather outbreak becoming more evident for xmas afternoon and night across Louisiana and Mississippi.
The moonson will bring some nasty weather to the Southwestern part of the country.
Watching the system in the Gulf of Mexico for development. Probably a small chance.
Heat builds into the East while the rain continues for the Pacific Northwest.
Erika will have many issues this weekend includng tracking over the islands with big mountains.
Erika will track into the Bahamas and may intensify early next week. Track could bring it close to the U.S.