Here's the issue at hand.
1. NAO is going to neutral
2. PNA is staying slightly negative
3. MJO remains weak, but may improve over time
4. ENSO event remains neutral
The key parameters are all neutral or weak, which means there's nothing to really hang your hat on that will be a tell-tale sign of the pattern to come. So what we have is a pattern where the mean trough position will remain in the West and smaller troughs will migrate through the East, stirring up trouble through the holidays. Essentially, a parade of storms will be coming into the eastern part of the country and one has to be on guard for snow events.
With that said, I don't believe that you can hang your hat on any one model as being gospel. It's a case where making snow predictions will have to be done at the last minute once you have a consensus of the operational models.
In regards to storms, we have a storm this weekend which the snow map is shown below. We have another set of storms next week prior to the holidays which are not being very well handled by the models. Yes, the ECMWF has a great snow event for the Northeast, but I don't buy it just yet. We will probably have to wait until model before a more clearer picture of how the storms will come about.
Odile will bring some serious flooding to parts of Arizona into New Mexico.
Flash flooding will be the big story across the Southwest this week.
Low over Florida will drift into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Slow development possible.
Snow along the Front Range of the Rockies...cold weather in the Plains.
The storms will continue to roll east with damaging winds and flash flooding. Snow along the front range of the Rockies.
Severe storms will be ahead of the cold front as it blasts across the East. Get ready for a fall!