Here's the issue at hand.
1. NAO is going to neutral
2. PNA is staying slightly negative
3. MJO remains weak, but may improve over time
4. ENSO event remains neutral
The key parameters are all neutral or weak, which means there's nothing to really hang your hat on that will be a tell-tale sign of the pattern to come. So what we have is a pattern where the mean trough position will remain in the West and smaller troughs will migrate through the East, stirring up trouble through the holidays. Essentially, a parade of storms will be coming into the eastern part of the country and one has to be on guard for snow events.
With that said, I don't believe that you can hang your hat on any one model as being gospel. It's a case where making snow predictions will have to be done at the last minute once you have a consensus of the operational models.
In regards to storms, we have a storm this weekend which the snow map is shown below. We have another set of storms next week prior to the holidays which are not being very well handled by the models. Yes, the ECMWF has a great snow event for the Northeast, but I don't buy it just yet. We will probably have to wait until model before a more clearer picture of how the storms will come about.
A cold front moving across the Northeast will produce severe storms. The High Plains will also have severe storms and maybe tornadoes.
The bulk of the severe storms will stay on the High Plains today and Tuesday.
Severe weather will hit the Upper Midwest and southern Canada. It could be a tornado day!
Another big day for severe weather. Damaging winds and even a few tornadoes possible today.
Two major days of severe weather. First day in the Ohio Valley and the second day in West Virginia and Virginia.
Two potential nasty days of severe weather due to a highly unusual strong jet stream moving through,