Here's the issue at hand.
1. NAO is going to neutral
2. PNA is staying slightly negative
3. MJO remains weak, but may improve over time
4. ENSO event remains neutral
The key parameters are all neutral or weak, which means there's nothing to really hang your hat on that will be a tell-tale sign of the pattern to come. So what we have is a pattern where the mean trough position will remain in the West and smaller troughs will migrate through the East, stirring up trouble through the holidays. Essentially, a parade of storms will be coming into the eastern part of the country and one has to be on guard for snow events.
With that said, I don't believe that you can hang your hat on any one model as being gospel. It's a case where making snow predictions will have to be done at the last minute once you have a consensus of the operational models.
In regards to storms, we have a storm this weekend which the snow map is shown below. We have another set of storms next week prior to the holidays which are not being very well handled by the models. Yes, the ECMWF has a great snow event for the Northeast, but I don't buy it just yet. We will probably have to wait until model before a more clearer picture of how the storms will come about.
Heavy rains associated with the upper-level low will hit the Carolinas into Virginia. Some areas could get over a foot of rain by Monday!
The heavy rains are still coming and someone is going to have up to a foot of rain and flooding.
Major problems the end of the week and weekend as another round of flooding rains occur and Joaquin could impact the mid-Atlantic.
The Northeast will be the center for flooding rains through the weekend. Joaquin could bring troubles late in the weekend.
A stormy week for the Eastern part of the country. Heavy rains will be the main issue.
Stormy along the East coast this weekend and perhaps in the Gulf of Mexico late in the weekend and early next week.