While we are in a quiet time I wanted to follow up on the lack of tornadoes. On the graph below, you can see that over the weekend we dipped below the minimum number of tornadoes for the date in regards to the percentile rankings. This has really been a quiet year for tornadoes despite the fact that May was a deadly month with five killer tornadoes and 41 deaths. One would think that during a year with such low numbers the number of deaths will be low as well, but we continue to have the age old problem with warnings, communications and people reacting to warnings. Plus, the shear size of the tornadoes this year have also caused issues, especially the one in Oklahoma.
It does not appear the second severe weather season will be all that active as well.
While things are quiet the tropics, the GFS suggests that the tropics will get active next week with several storms in the Atlantic.
Sunday will be the active day for severe weather and the potential for damaging storms.
Severe weather will develop in the Midwest Sunday and tornadoes could occur with the storms.
System in the Gulf could become a TD...outbreak of severe weather Sunday.
System in the Gulf has a low chance for development the next two days.
Video today looks at the tropical storm and where it will go. No extreme storms, just a few heavy ones.
Here are the scenarios for the track of the tropical system.