1. The tropics should start to get active by this weekend and the map below shows the areas where the development may occur. Interestingly, I put a low probability area along the East Coast because the operational models show a small storm developing along the front again. As you know, we had two storms develop along the East Coast, the first one in a similar weather pattern as we have now. The NAM is bullish on a storm developing, but whether it becomes a named storm or not, or even develops, remains to be seen. The Yucatan is where we really need to watch for development late in the weekend and next week.
2. Severe weather today will be confined to the High Plains, Texas and Louisiana. The impacts today will be high winds and large hail in the storms. Some storms will also cause flash flooding.
An upper low will dive into the Ohio Valley producing an area of heavy rain.
A front settles down into Texas and causes heavy rains.
Severe storms over the High Plains. Video looks at the tropical issues coming up.
Tropics may produce storms that could impact the U.S.
The heavy storms return to the Midwest, some with hail and heavy rains.
Two tropical systems will impact the U.S. with heavy rains.