About the Tropics
So throw out the models and start looking at the pattern. I see two scenarios once we have a system. The first scenario, the trough picks up the system and takes it out to sea. The second scenario is the system misses the connection with the trough and moves west into the Gulf of Mexico. The key to the track will be the intensity of the system by Saturday when the trough passes to the north of the Bahamas. The system looks nice and round this morning which says to me it wants to go once in an area for development. My gut feeling that we have at least a tropical depression by Saturday and that it misses the connection with the trough and heads west.
Storms will develop under the trough today, Some of the storms will be heavy at times with gusty winds and hail
Severe storms with damaging winds and hail will hit parts of the Ohio Valley today. The heat wave continues this week in the West.
An unusual storm will bring severe weather today and signifcant flooding potential for Saturday.
Active through this weekend with severe weather and heavy rains. Floodin may become an issue by Saturday.
The weather pattern will be active with possible extremes in regards to heat and heavy rains.
A crazy day of severe weather in the East. We return to the Midwest for severe weather tomorrow.