Henry Margusity

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Tropical System Will Develop by Monday and Could Bring Flooding Rains

October 7, 2011; 9:06 AM ET

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The operational models continue to have problems with next week's tropical threat along the East Coast. The GFS backed off some, while the Euro and DGEX both have a healthy storm coming up the coast. While we can flush out what type of storm is coming up the coast, I remain concerned that despite the storm intensity and such, heavy rain is coming, and coming to areas already hit by flooding this year. On the extreme side of the event, I can see 2-6 inches of rain coming in a 24-hour period from Tuesday to Wednesday, followed by another round of 1-2 inches late in the week.

In my humble opinion, the rains in the Northeast are really tipping their hand as to where the worst of the snows will be this year. The atmosphere has a way to remember things, and I think it will remember that when the cold weather comes in, and so will the snows.

I don't want to take anything away from the official forecast we released, because I do think when push comes to shove, the Midwest will end up with the longest duration of cold and snow. So if you were to poll the folks in Chicago verses New York City, the Chicago folks will say they had a harsh winter, despite New York City getting slammed by several major snow events. But the difference will be that New York City may not have the prolonged and harsh cold, and may also have episodes of mild weather that melts the snow away just as quickly as it falls.

To me, the winter forecast is a tough one this year, but one that is actually being well telegraphed by the current weather situation. It's tough because the storm track and precipitation types will be hair-pulling this year in many areas.

One thing that has been bothering me in regards to the storm track is the ridge that continues to hold its ground across the Southwest into Texas. While we are seeing the ridge getting bashed down every once in a while now, it's still a feature that bounces back with a vengeance. So to get a storm track to go from western Texas to the Great Lakes will be a hard feat to accomplish if that ridge holds into the winter months.

That's all for now...

The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of AccuWeather, Inc. or AccuWeather.com

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Henry Margusity
AccuWeather.com severe weather expert, Henry Margusity, offers the Meteorological Madness blog including detailed analysis of severe weather across the US.