1. The tornado count remains low and I just do not see a pattern that will produce a widespread tornado outbreak. If we remain where we are today with 235 reports of tornadoes, by May 12th we will hit the lowest number of tornadoes to date, beating 2004. The graph below shows the percentile trends and, as you can see, the minimal number of tornadoes to date could be crossed by late May. Keep in mind, while the lack of tornadoes has been a good thing, it does show us how this pattern remains extreme in a different manner then one would think. We tend to think of extremes being extreme weather, but in this case, the lack of a specific weather event is just as extreme. What has been extreme this year was the snow lasting well into May. So while we are not getting the tornadoes, we did get the snow very late in the season.
2. Severe weather returns this week, but I am not holding my breath that we will see a major outbreak of severe weather. I think the storms Wednesday will contain mainly large hail and damaging winds, perhaps an isolated tornado. Again, I just don't see any big outbreaks of tornadoes in this pattern this week.
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The next couple of weeks will bring several big storms.
Heavy rains will hit California this weekend and cause serious flooding.
Another snowstorm will hit Maine and add to the snowcover.
A severe weather outbreak will occur Tuesday across eastern Texas and spread into Louisiana Tuesday night.
We are not done yet as the pattern will go to the extremes with at least 3 more major storms.