1. The tornado count remains low and I just do not see a pattern that will produce a widespread tornado outbreak. If we remain where we are today with 235 reports of tornadoes, by May 12th we will hit the lowest number of tornadoes to date, beating 2004. The graph below shows the percentile trends and, as you can see, the minimal number of tornadoes to date could be crossed by late May. Keep in mind, while the lack of tornadoes has been a good thing, it does show us how this pattern remains extreme in a different manner then one would think. We tend to think of extremes being extreme weather, but in this case, the lack of a specific weather event is just as extreme. What has been extreme this year was the snow lasting well into May. So while we are not getting the tornadoes, we did get the snow very late in the season.
2. Severe weather returns this week, but I am not holding my breath that we will see a major outbreak of severe weather. I think the storms Wednesday will contain mainly large hail and damaging winds, perhaps an isolated tornado. Again, I just don't see any big outbreaks of tornadoes in this pattern this week.
Sunday will be the active day for severe weather and the potential for damaging storms.
Severe weather will develop in the Midwest Sunday and tornadoes could occur with the storms.
System in the Gulf could become a TD...outbreak of severe weather Sunday.
System in the Gulf has a low chance for development the next two days.
Video today looks at the tropical storm and where it will go. No extreme storms, just a few heavy ones.
Here are the scenarios for the track of the tropical system.