I've been looking at a lot of things this morning, and to me, this is one of the wilder weather patterns that we are going into for the month of February. With the NAO being positive and the PNA being negative, storms over the next two weeks should cut into the Great Lakes despite what the ECMWF is saying. The kicker will be the Monday storm that can produce some some sneaky snows on the order of 1-4 inches from Texas to Virginia Sunday into Monday. That will probably be the last of the southern cutters as the pattern goes into what we saw back in November. In the video, I did talk about the November pattern that led to a severe weather outbreak due to the positive NAO and negative PNA. I am not saying that will happen, I am just saying that the pattern means the storms cut to the eastern Great Lakes and not to the East Coast as the ECMWF says.
The monthly control run of the ECMWF looks more inline with the pattern through February into early March showing very warm weather in the East and cold weather in the northern Plains and West. It also shows major storms with snow and severe weather.
The image below is the GFS snow amounts through Monday. It shows the first storm and the sneaky storm snows this weekend.
The weather will be severe across the Plains this weekend as thunderstorms with hail, damaging winds, tornadoes and flooding rains develop.
Severe storms will develop across the eastern Carolina's today. Active severe weather pattern in the Plains this weekend.
Pattern continues to produce storms across Texas and the High Plains into the Holiday weekend. Eastern Carolina's get hit Thursday.
High Plains get hit again with heavy rains, severe storms and even snow. The weather should calm down later tomorrow.
Severe weather coverage will be less this week but still active across western Texas.
The pattern has not changed much and that means the severe weather will hit the Plains this weekend.