I've been looking at a lot of things this morning, and to me, this is one of the wilder weather patterns that we are going into for the month of February. With the NAO being positive and the PNA being negative, storms over the next two weeks should cut into the Great Lakes despite what the ECMWF is saying. The kicker will be the Monday storm that can produce some some sneaky snows on the order of 1-4 inches from Texas to Virginia Sunday into Monday. That will probably be the last of the southern cutters as the pattern goes into what we saw back in November. In the video, I did talk about the November pattern that led to a severe weather outbreak due to the positive NAO and negative PNA. I am not saying that will happen, I am just saying that the pattern means the storms cut to the eastern Great Lakes and not to the East Coast as the ECMWF says.
The monthly control run of the ECMWF looks more inline with the pattern through February into early March showing very warm weather in the East and cold weather in the northern Plains and West. It also shows major storms with snow and severe weather.
The image below is the GFS snow amounts through Monday. It shows the first storm and the sneaky storm snows this weekend.
Storms in the mid-Atlantic can be severe today. Pattern changes to a cooler one later this week.
A stormy time across the southern Plains today into Saturday. Flooding rains will be the main issue during the period.
Storms will be severe in the southern mid-Atlantic and in the Southern Plains. Tornadoes possible in the Plains Friday.
The focus of the severe weather will be across southern Iowa into western Illnois where storms should develop around the upper-level low.
Storm coming out of the Rockies will bring tornadoes and severe winds to the Plains and Mississippi. Mid-Atlantic has big storms too.
Severe weather will occur this week as a series of storms move across the country.