Henry Margusity

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The 2009-2010 Winter Forecast

October 05, 2009; 6:42 AM

THE EAST GETS THE COLD AND SNOWY WEATHER THIS YEAR... FLORIDA COULD BE SEVERE WEATHER ATTACK ZONE... WEST STAYS DRY WHICH MEANS BAD NEWS FOR WATER AND FIRES...

Discussion:

I am not riding the wave of a major El Niño across the country. The SOI values this summer have been bouncing around neutral. so one could argue either way that we are in a weak El Niño or in neutral. With that said, I based my winter forecast around the idea that we will stay around the weak to neutral El Niño through the winter months. So what does that mean? It means to me that the focus of the winter will be in the eastern part of the country where the cold and snowy weather will be centered. The storm track, which I think is starting to show it's self now will be one where storms will cross the country, riding along the extreme cold that will be across the Great Lakes. I do like the idea that a few storms will end up bombing out along the coast and it's not out of the question that the major cities along the I-95 corridor north of Richmond get a true blizzard.

The storm track that I am showing also is one that can produce severe weather across the Gulf coast states into Florida. I am concerned that the bulk of the severe weather is centered over Florida. I seen patterns like this before that have produce very bad tornado outbreaks across Florida and that is certainly one of my biggest concerns.

The West I think will remain on the dry side. I do not see the typical El Niño type of pattern that brings big storms into California. I do see a few rainstorms but for the most part, rainfall will remain below normal as shown on the map.

The coldest weather and perhaps some of the coldest weather in a long time will be centered over the Great Lakes, Ohio valley and parts of the Northeast. I can see a spell of temperatures near 0 for highs that last an extended period of time.






City Avg Snowfall 09-10 Winter
BIRMINGHAM C.O.,AL 2 2
BIRMINGHAM AP,AL 2 2
HUNTSVILLE, AL 3 3
MOBILE, AL 1 1
MONTGOMERY, AL 0 0
FLAGSTAFF, AZ 101 50
PHOENIX, AZ 0 0
TUCSON, AZ 1 1
WINSLOW, AZ 11 5
YUMA, AZ 0 0
FORT SMITH, AR 6 3
LITTLE ROCK, AR 5 3
NORTH LITTLE ROCK, AR 7 3
BAKERSFIELD, CA 0 0
BISHOP, CA 8 4
BLUE CANYON, CA 241 120
EUREKA, CA. 0 0
FRESNO, CA 0 0
LONG BEACH, CA 0 0
LOS ANGELES AP, CA 0 0
LOS ANGELES C.O., CA 0 0
MOUNT SHASTA, CA 105 52
REDDING, CA 3 2
SACRAMENTO, CA 0 0
SAN DIEGO, CA 0 0
SAN FRANCISCO AP, CA 0 0
SAN FRANCISCO C.O., CA 0 0
SANTA BARBARA, CA 0 0
SANTA MARIA, CA 0 0
STOCKTON, CA 0 0
ALAMOSA, CO 34 17
COLORADO SPRINGS, CO 43 21
DENVER, CO 60 60
GRAND JUNCTION, CO 25 13
PUEBLO, CO 33 17
BRIDGEPORT, CT 25 37
HARTFORD, CT 47 71
WILMINGTON, DE 20 31
WASHINGTON DULLES AP,

D.C.

23 41
WASHINGTON NAT'L AP, D.C. 17 30
FLORIDA 0 0
ATHENS, GA 2 2
ATLANTA, GA 2 2
AUGUSTA,GA 1 1
COLUMBUS, GA 1 1
MACON, GA 1 1
SAVANNAH, GA 0 0
BOISE, ID 21 21
LEWISTON, ID 16 16
POCATELLO, ID 43 43
CAIRO,IL 10 12
CHICAGO,IL 38 46
MOLINE, IL 30 36
PEORIA, IL 25 30
ROCKFORD, IL 35 42
SPRINGFIELD, IL 24 28
EVANSVILLE, IN 14 16
FORT WAYNE, IN 33 39
INDIANAPOLIS, IN 23 27
SOUTH BEND, IN 71 86
DES MOINES, IA 33 33
DUBUQUE,IA 44 44
SIOUX CITY, IA 32 32
WATERLOO, IA 32 32
CONCORDIA, KS 22 22
DODGE CITY, KS 20 20
GOODLAND, KS 38 38
TOPEKA, KS 21 25
WICHITA, KS 16 19
CINCINNATI, OH 23 40
JACKSON, KY 21 25
LEXINGTON, KY 16 19
LOUISVILLE, KY 16 19
PADUCAH KY 11 13
BATON ROUGE, LA 0 0
LAKE CHARLES, LA 0 0
NEW ORLEANS, LA 0 0
SHREVEPORT, LA 2 1
CARIBOU, ME 110 110
PORTLAND, ME 71 71
BALTIMORE, MD 21 42
BLUE HILL, MA 59 89
BOSTON, MA 41 61
WORCESTER, MA 68 102
ALPENA, MI 85 85
DETROIT, MI 41 41
FLINT, MI 45 45
GRAND RAPIDS, MI 72 72
HOUGHTON LAKE, MI 75 75
LANSING, MI 49 49
MARQUETTE, MI 129 129
MUSKEGON, MI 97 97
SAULT STE. MARIE, MI 116 116
DULUTH, MN 78 78
INTERNATIONAL FALLS, MN 64 64
MINNEAPOLIS-ST.PAUL, MN 50 50
ROCHESTER, MN 49 49
SAINT CLOUD, MN 45 45
JACKSON, MS 1 1
MERIDIAN, MS 1 1
TUPELO, MS 3 1
COLUMBIA, MO 23 23
KANSAS CITY, MO 20 20
ST. LOUIS, MO 20 20
SPRINGFIELD, MO 17 17
BILLINGS, MT 57 57
GLASGOW, MT 27 27
GREAT FALLS, MT 59 59
HELENA, MT 48 48
KALISPELL, MT 64 64
MISSOULA, MT 46 46
GRAND ISLAND, NE 31 31
LINCOLN, NE 27 27
NORFOLK, NE 31 31
NORTH PLATTE, NE 30 30
OMAHA EPPLEY AP, NE 30 30
OMAHA (NORTH), NE 31 31
SCOTTSBLUFF, NE 41 41
VALENTINE, NE 33 16
ELKO, NV 38 19
ELY, NV 49 24
LAS VEGAS, NV 1 1
RENO, NV 25 12
WINNEMUCCA, NV 24 12
CONCORD, NH 63 101
ATLANTIC CITY AP, NJ 16 32
NEWARK, NJ 27 54
ALBUQUERQUE, NM 11 6
CLAYTON, NM 22 11
ROSWELL, NM 11 6
ALBANY, NY 63 95
BINGHAMTON, NY 82 124
BUFFALO, NY 91 128
ISLIP, NY 21 41
NEW YORK C.PARK, NY 28 51
NEW YORK (JFK AP), NY 23 41
NEW YORK (LAGUARDIA AP),

NY

25 46
ROCHESTER, NY 90 162
SYRACUSE, NY 114 205
ASHEVILLE, NC 16 25
CAPE HATTERAS, NC 2 2
CHARLOTTE, NC 6 9
GREENSBORO-WNSTN-SALM-HGHP

style='display:none'>T,NC

9 17
RALEIGH, NC 7 14
WILMINGTON, NC 2 2
BISMARCK, ND 42 42
FARGO, ND 38 38
WILLISTON, ND 38 38
AKRON, OH 48 81
CLEVELAND, OH 55 94
COLUMBUS, OH 28 47
DAYTON, OH 28 47
MANSFIELD, OH 42 71
TOLEDO, OH 37 63
YOUNGSTOWN, OH 56 96
OKLAHOMA CITY, OK 9 5
TULSA, OK 9 5
ASTORIA, OR 5 5
BURNS,OR 43 43
EUGENE, OR 7 7
MEDFORD, OR 7 7
PENDLETON, OR 18 18
PORTLAND, OR 7 7
SALEM, OR 7 7
SEXTON SUMMIT, OR 98 98
ALLENTOWN, PA 31 53
ERIE, PA. 86 111
HARRISBURG, PA 34 51
MIDDLETOWN/HARRISBURG

INTL APT

34 51
PHILADELPHIA, PA 21 40
PITTSBURGH, PA 43 65
AVOCA, PA 47 70
ALTOONA, PA 40 60
STATE COLLEGE, PA 45 68
WILLIAMSPORT, PA 41 62
PROVIDENCE, RI 36 53
CHARLESTON AP,SC 1 0
COLUMBIA, SC 2 4
GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG

AP, SC

6 13
ABERDEEN, SD 36 36
HURON, SD 39 39
RAPID CITY, SD 39 39
SIOUX FALLS, SD 40 40
BRISTOL-JHNSN

CTY-KNGSPRT,TN

16 24
CHATTANOOGA, TN 4 7
KNOXVILLE, TN 12 18
MEMPHIS, TN 5 8
NASHVILLE, TN 10 15
OAK RIDGE,TN 10 15
ABILENE, TX 5 2
AMARILLO, TX 15 8
AUSTIN, TX 1 0
BROWNSVILLE, TX 0 0
CORPUS CHRISTI, TX 0 0
DALLAS-FORT WORTH, TX 3 2
DEL RIO, TX 1 1
EL PASO, TX 6 3
GALVESTON, TX 0 0
HOUSTON, TX 0 0
LUBBOCK, TX 10 5
MIDLAND-ODESSA, TX 4 2
PORT ARTHUR, TX 0 0
SAN ANGELO, TX 3 2
SAN ANTONIO, TX 1 0
VICTORIA, TX 0 0
WACO, TX 1 0
WICHITA FALLS, TX 6 3
MILFORD, UT 45 23
SALT LAKE CITY, UT 58 41
BURLINGTON, VT 77 108
LYNCHBURG, VA 18 36
NORFOLK, VA 7 15
RICHMOND, VA 14 28
ROANOKE, VA 23 46
WALLOPS ISLAND, VA 9 18
OLYMPIA, WA 17 17
QUILLAYUTE, WA 14 14
SEATTLE C.O., WA 7 7
SEATTLE SEA-TAC AP, WA 12 12
SPOKANE, WA 50 50
WALLA WALLA, WA 20 20
YAKIMA, WA 24 24
BECKLEY, WV 60 90
CHARLESTON, WV 32 48
ELKINS, WV 76 114
HUNTINGTON, WV 26 41
GREEN BAY, WI 46 46
LA CROSSE, WI 42 42
MADISON, WI 43 43
MILWAUKEE, WI 47 47
CASPER, WY 79 79
CHEYENNE, WY 55 55
LANDER, WY 102 102
SHERIDAN, WY 72 72

The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of AccuWeather, Inc. or AccuWeather.com

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Henry Margusity
AccuWeather.com severe weather expert, Henry Margusity, offers the Meteorological Madness blog including detailed analysis of severe weather across the US.