Henry Margusity

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Stormy Weather Pattern into the Weekend

February 20, 2013; 1:04 PM ET


1. I wanted to show the ECMWF snow forecast through Sunday evening. The first map is the initial map and the last one is the snowfall the model predicts will fall through Sunday. Notice how much snow falls in the Plains where a blizzard will develop Thursday. Also notice New England where the second storm comes up and produces heavy snow this weekend.

2. The problem with the second storm will be P-Type since warm air will be hovering around and may keep totals down. We may see snow all the way back into the Appalachians as well.

3. The snow that comes out of the Plains will dwindle coming northeast. Chicago is a tough forecast. I can see a few inches of snow, but I don't see any snow over 6 inches with the storm.

4. Severe weather will be limited to south-central Texas this evening where the best inflow of moisture is occurring. The storms should be elevated coming into Dallas where the impacts will be mainly hail.

5. In regards to severe weather, I am more impressed with Friday evening in Alabama and Georgia with the development of the next storm. If we get the higher dew points pooled along the front, we could be talking about flash flooding and even a few tornadoes.

6. With the NAO going negative and the PNA going positive, my concern remains for a big storm along the East coast. I am not sure which storm it will be yet, but there's some possibilities, especially around March 6.

The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of AccuWeather, Inc. or AccuWeather.com


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Henry Margusity
AccuWeather.com severe weather expert, Henry Margusity, offers the Meteorological Madness blog including detailed analysis of severe weather across the US.