Below are a couple of images showing my first impressions of winter. The first one was done by Ralph (thanks Ralph for doing this) who put together an image showing normal snowfall vs snowfall during an neutral ENSO event. With the ENSO right now running neutral as per the SOI values as seen below, I wanted to see what a neutral ENSO means to the snowfall in many of the cities. As you can see, neutral ENSO's mean above-normal snowfall for most places.
As per the SOI values below, the 30 day and 90 day which are the right columns, 90 day being the far right column, are all showing values around neutral so far this month. Even NOAA as declared the ENSO on the neutral side right now, so that has to be factored in as we go into winter.
There are other factors that need to be considered, one of which is the extent of the blocking. If there is very little blocking, what does that mean compared to a lot of blocking.
I am still working through all of the data and plan on having my own winter forecast sometime mid-late October.
Storm next week will produce a swath of heavy snows. Extreme cold prior to the snowstorm!
The dreaded polar vortex is on the way for this weekend. Next week a storm wikll bring snow once again.
Snow showers will continue around the Great Lakes, Midwest and Northeast through Thursday. By the weekend, it's going to be very cold!
Upper-level low will brign scattered areas of snow through Wednesday. By the weekend, it's extremely cold.
Snow will hit many areas the next two days but extremely cold weather will follow the snow.
The pattern will become more wintry across the eastern part of the county, and a lot of people will see snow!