Below are a couple of images showing my first impressions of winter. The first one was done by Ralph (thanks Ralph for doing this) who put together an image showing normal snowfall vs snowfall during an neutral ENSO event. With the ENSO right now running neutral as per the SOI values as seen below, I wanted to see what a neutral ENSO means to the snowfall in many of the cities. As you can see, neutral ENSO's mean above-normal snowfall for most places.
As per the SOI values below, the 30 day and 90 day which are the right columns, 90 day being the far right column, are all showing values around neutral so far this month. Even NOAA as declared the ENSO on the neutral side right now, so that has to be factored in as we go into winter.
There are other factors that need to be considered, one of which is the extent of the blocking. If there is very little blocking, what does that mean compared to a lot of blocking.
I am still working through all of the data and plan on having my own winter forecast sometime mid-late October.
We are seeing the SOI values crashing again as the El Nino continues to pulse. Weather should get active again next week.
The El Nino has crashed again which means extreme weather should return soon. Check out the video.
The winds will be damaging across the northern Plains today. Expect gusts over 60 mph!
The week will start stormy for the Northern Plains with severe weather followed by high winds.
Next week will start of with severe weather and will end with a tropical threat aong the East coasty.
We may see tornadoes across the northern Plains during the next 10 days.