Below are a couple of images showing my first impressions of winter. The first one was done by Ralph (thanks Ralph for doing this) who put together an image showing normal snowfall vs snowfall during an neutral ENSO event. With the ENSO right now running neutral as per the SOI values as seen below, I wanted to see what a neutral ENSO means to the snowfall in many of the cities. As you can see, neutral ENSO's mean above-normal snowfall for most places.
As per the SOI values below, the 30 day and 90 day which are the right columns, 90 day being the far right column, are all showing values around neutral so far this month. Even NOAA as declared the ENSO on the neutral side right now, so that has to be factored in as we go into winter.
There are other factors that need to be considered, one of which is the extent of the blocking. If there is very little blocking, what does that mean compared to a lot of blocking.
I am still working through all of the data and plan on having my own winter forecast sometime mid-late October.
The storm this weekend will produce nasty weather and may cause damage from severe storms and flooding.
Storm this weekend will produce a whole bunch of bad weather.
The storm this weekend will produce severe storms, flooding and possibly heavy snow.
Snow for New England today into tonight. The weekend storm will be a wild one.
A clipper will bring snow to New England. A storm this weekend will produce severe weather and snow.
Nothing really new this morning. Snow area seems to be good with some adjustments per the AccuWeather map.