Below are a couple of images showing my first impressions of winter. The first one was done by Ralph (thanks Ralph for doing this) who put together an image showing normal snowfall vs snowfall during an neutral ENSO event. With the ENSO right now running neutral as per the SOI values as seen below, I wanted to see what a neutral ENSO means to the snowfall in many of the cities. As you can see, neutral ENSO's mean above-normal snowfall for most places.
As per the SOI values below, the 30 day and 90 day which are the right columns, 90 day being the far right column, are all showing values around neutral so far this month. Even NOAA as declared the ENSO on the neutral side right now, so that has to be factored in as we go into winter.
There are other factors that need to be considered, one of which is the extent of the blocking. If there is very little blocking, what does that mean compared to a lot of blocking.
I am still working through all of the data and plan on having my own winter forecast sometime mid-late October.
At least two areas of heavy rains through this weekend may result in flooding problems.
Heat and Humidity will attack the trough and result in heavy rains and heavy thunderstorms.
Severe storms will develop across New England this afternoon and may produce damaging winds and even another tornado.
A busy weekend for the Midwest and Ohio Valley as severe storms will hit ahead of the cold front.
Severe weather will rip across the Northern Plains today. Parts of Canada may see tornadoes.
Severe weather will be the focus the next couple of days. Tornadoes may hit western Canada.