Below are a couple of images showing my first impressions of winter. The first one was done by Ralph (thanks Ralph for doing this) who put together an image showing normal snowfall vs snowfall during an neutral ENSO event. With the ENSO right now running neutral as per the SOI values as seen below, I wanted to see what a neutral ENSO means to the snowfall in many of the cities. As you can see, neutral ENSO's mean above-normal snowfall for most places.
As per the SOI values below, the 30 day and 90 day which are the right columns, 90 day being the far right column, are all showing values around neutral so far this month. Even NOAA as declared the ENSO on the neutral side right now, so that has to be factored in as we go into winter.
There are other factors that need to be considered, one of which is the extent of the blocking. If there is very little blocking, what does that mean compared to a lot of blocking.
I am still working through all of the data and plan on having my own winter forecast sometime mid-late October.
In the video, I look at the tropics and specifically the western Caribbean. Also, a look at Ana coming into the Pac NW Tuesday.
Coastal storm will bring heavy rains and street flooding for the Northeast. Ana is still out there and will head into the Pac Nw next week.
The tropics could certainly be the main focus late in the weekend into early next week. Coastal storm will bring rain and wind.
Coastal storm will bring rain to the Northeast and maybe some wet snow over the hills. More rain for the Pac NW. development slow in the Gulf.
The tropics remain the big problem in the weather. Ana could hit the Pacific Northwest, Gonzalo will hit Europe, and development may occur in the Gulf.
Bermuda will get hit hard today by Gonzalo while in the Pacific, Ana will go south of Hawaii with only minimal impacts.