Below are a couple of images showing my first impressions of winter. The first one was done by Ralph (thanks Ralph for doing this) who put together an image showing normal snowfall vs snowfall during an neutral ENSO event. With the ENSO right now running neutral as per the SOI values as seen below, I wanted to see what a neutral ENSO means to the snowfall in many of the cities. As you can see, neutral ENSO's mean above-normal snowfall for most places.
As per the SOI values below, the 30 day and 90 day which are the right columns, 90 day being the far right column, are all showing values around neutral so far this month. Even NOAA as declared the ENSO on the neutral side right now, so that has to be factored in as we go into winter.
There are other factors that need to be considered, one of which is the extent of the blocking. If there is very little blocking, what does that mean compared to a lot of blocking.
I am still working through all of the data and plan on having my own winter forecast sometime mid-late October.
Major snowstorm starts with workweek as clipper explodes off the coast. It may become a blizzard for New England and NYC.
Two shots of snow are coming as a storm comes north followed by clipper snows Sunday into Monday.
Two snowstorms will affect the East over the next 5 days.
Clipper snows today could be heavy in places. Next storm will bring snow to the I-95 corridor.
Snow Wednesday will accumulate up to 4 inches or more. Storm may hit the East Coast this weekend.
Clipper will bring a swath of snow from the Dakota's to the Mid-Atlantic.