Below are a couple of images showing my first impressions of winter. The first one was done by Ralph (thanks Ralph for doing this) who put together an image showing normal snowfall vs snowfall during an neutral ENSO event. With the ENSO right now running neutral as per the SOI values as seen below, I wanted to see what a neutral ENSO means to the snowfall in many of the cities. As you can see, neutral ENSO's mean above-normal snowfall for most places.
As per the SOI values below, the 30 day and 90 day which are the right columns, 90 day being the far right column, are all showing values around neutral so far this month. Even NOAA as declared the ENSO on the neutral side right now, so that has to be factored in as we go into winter.
There are other factors that need to be considered, one of which is the extent of the blocking. If there is very little blocking, what does that mean compared to a lot of blocking.
I am still working through all of the data and plan on having my own winter forecast sometime mid-late October.
Heat builds into the East while the rain continues for the Pacific Northwest.
Erika will have many issues this weekend includng tracking over the islands with big mountains.
Erika will track into the Bahamas and may intensify early next week. Track could bring it close to the U.S.
Erika's path and intensity over the next five days is the concern of the day.
We continue to watch the tropics as now we have a new storm.
The weather this week across the country will be calm, but we still have Danny out there lurking later this week.