There are big differences between the GFS and ECMWF this morning in regards to the snowstorm across the Northeast. The GFS has a flat wave moving across the Midwest into the Northeast that phases with the southern storm to produce a formidable snowstorm for New England. The ECMWF phases the storm earlier to product a blizzard across New England into Maine with snow amounts over a foot. Two very different solutions with a neutral NAO which makes things even more muddle. I went with the GFS solution only because I like to see a more negative NAO to get a mega storm as shown on the ECMWF. It can happen with a neutral NAO, but I would prefer to see more of a consensus with the models before pulling the trigger on such an event.
Also, the ECMWF is predicting 15 below in NYC behind the storm which is just unheard of so it seems to me the model is have problems with the extremes.
There's is no doubt that it's going to be cold from the Midwest to the Northeast this week.
Storms in the mid-Atlantic can be severe today. Pattern changes to a cooler one later this week.
A stormy time across the southern Plains today into Saturday. Flooding rains will be the main issue during the period.
Storms will be severe in the southern mid-Atlantic and in the Southern Plains. Tornadoes possible in the Plains Friday.
The focus of the severe weather will be across southern Iowa into western Illnois where storms should develop around the upper-level low.
Storm coming out of the Rockies will bring tornadoes and severe winds to the Plains and Mississippi. Mid-Atlantic has big storms too.
Severe weather will occur this week as a series of storms move across the country.