Henry Margusity

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Snowstorm Wednesday and Thursday...Models Going to Extremes!

December 30, 2013; 10:06 AM ET


There are big differences between the GFS and ECMWF this morning in regards to the snowstorm across the Northeast. The GFS has a flat wave moving across the Midwest into the Northeast that phases with the southern storm to produce a formidable snowstorm for New England. The ECMWF phases the storm earlier to product a blizzard across New England into Maine with snow amounts over a foot. Two very different solutions with a neutral NAO which makes things even more muddle. I went with the GFS solution only because I like to see a more negative NAO to get a mega storm as shown on the ECMWF. It can happen with a neutral NAO, but I would prefer to see more of a consensus with the models before pulling the trigger on such an event.

Also, the ECMWF is predicting 15 below in NYC behind the storm which is just unheard of so it seems to me the model is have problems with the extremes.

There's is no doubt that it's going to be cold from the Midwest to the Northeast this week.

The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of AccuWeather, Inc. or AccuWeather.com


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Henry Margusity
AccuWeather.com severe weather expert, Henry Margusity, offers the Meteorological Madness blog including detailed analysis of severe weather across the US.