The models are going to play the normal storm games the next seven days, so don't get too crazy about every run of the models. The pattern is certainly exciting and the potential is there for a major snow event across the Appalachians and Northeast.
I do think a storm will develop along the coast because the NAO is going negative now and the AO is changing as well. So during the times of change is when storms may appear.
My thinking today is that wave of low pressure runs along the Arctic front from Iowa to West Virginia, spreading a swath of light snow Monday night through Tuesday. The storm jumps to the coast near Virginia Beach and intensifies. As the trough digs into the East and cuts off, the storm actually will move north-northwest which will put the Appalachians form West Virginia into Pennsylvania in the middle of the heaviest snow. The major I-95 cities have mainly rain with a change to snow on the tail of the storm.
The upside with a storm like this is 12-18 inches of snow with gales along the coast and some flooding problems. The ocean is warm so intensification could be very dramatic.
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This weekend will be very active in regards to severe weather and flooding across the Plains and South