1. The outbreak Friday afternoon into the night could be even worse then the outbreak that just occurred. We have a surface low going from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes with a pressure drop of 20 mb from Friday Am to Saturday Am. Other Factors... Dew points in the 60s will be coming north into the Ohio Valley. The left front quad of a 130-knot sub-tropical jet will aid in the intense upward motion. The NAM EHI values are going through the roof. When I saw that, I could not believe that values could be so low for early March.
Factors that have to be considered. Storms that develop late tonight will race northeast and could inhibit afternoon convection. Clouds from the storms could also keep the warming down.
On the north side of the storm, snow will fall across the Great Lakes with over 3 inches in many areas. The map below shows the area of snow for the storm Friday.
I know I did not comment on the snow in the Northeast because I am focusing on the severe weather outbreak and the impacts of that outbreak. From what I looks at, it looks like snow will continue much of the day with over 6 inches across parts of Vermont and New Hampshire into Maine. So, it looks like a good weekend for skiers.
Thunderstorm Scale (click for larger image)
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