The big story will be the severe weather developing Friday and spreading northeast and east Saturday. If you notice on the map, I pulled the trigger on the severity of the storms Saturday thinking that the left front quad of the jet, high dew point and sufficient shear will be in place for damaging winds and tornadoes across the Midwest. The models are impressive in regards to the severe weather parameters coming together for a significant outbreak of severe weather Saturday.
Storms should initially develop along the dry line in western Kansas to western Texas Friday then spread northeast. The dynamics on Saturday will be the big driver in the development of supercell storms with the potential for moderate size tornadoes across Iowa and Missouri. If the storms hold together, they could spread into Illinois during the night.
Also below is a gif image of the snowfall for years with a neutral ENSO with a cold PDO/warm AMO. Interesting to see the Northeast seems to be the snowy area during these years.
We are going into a five- to seven-day period of severe weather which will include tornadoes. We could see over 100 reports of tornadoes.
Latest map on the severe weather areas this weekend into Monday. Monday could be the big day.
Marginal severe weather the rest of the week, but the weekend could turn ugly in the Plains as the tornadoes return.
Tornadoes remain low but that may change this weekend.
More severe weather today into Saturday in the form of hail and damaging winds.
Storms will produce hail and strong winds today and Friday. Maybe a tornado or two in Texas.