The system way out in the Atlantic will move almost due west with a slight jog to the north but will eventually be a Central America problem a week or so down the road. I expect the system will become a tropical depression probably once it enters the Caribbean or even before that depending on what NHC wants to to do. This is not a threat to the U.S., and in fact, may be a weak system as it travels through the Caribbean. Impacts may come to Central America as heavy rains and flooding.
As for severe weather, I am impressed about a three-day event coming up. This is not to say there will not be any storms prior to Friday, I just think the system currently moving through BC will slide southeast and produce the first round of severe storms Friday followed by Saturday and Sunday. The map below shows the areas of concern.
I think the record low number of tornadoes for July is very impressive. The number is so low that it smashes the previous record low number of tornadoes at 43. Jesse has so great information in his blog on the Tornado Drought.
Long Range Tracks for Invest99l
Severe weather for the Ohio Valley and Northeast today.
One more day of tornadoes, some which can be large and devastating.
Tornadoes could be worse today given the jet coming out into the Plains.
We are going into a five- to seven-day period of severe weather which will include tornadoes. We could see over 100 reports of tornadoes.
Latest map on the severe weather areas this weekend into Monday. Monday could be the big day.
Marginal severe weather the rest of the week, but the weekend could turn ugly in the Plains as the tornadoes return.