Commentary
The system way out in the Atlantic will move almost due west with a slight jog to the north but will eventually be a Central America problem a week or so down the road. I expect the system will become a tropical depression probably once it enters the Caribbean or even before that depending on what NHC wants to to do. This is not a threat to the U.S., and in fact, may be a weak system as it travels through the Caribbean. Impacts may come to Central America as heavy rains and flooding.
As for severe weather, I am impressed about a three-day event coming up. This is not to say there will not be any storms prior to Friday, I just think the system currently moving through BC will slide southeast and produce the first round of severe storms Friday followed by Saturday and Sunday. The map below shows the areas of concern.
I think the record low number of tornadoes for July is very impressive. The number is so low that it smashes the previous record low number of tornadoes at 43. Jesse has so great information in his blog on the Tornado Drought.
Long Range Tracks for Invest99l
Storms will be in the Plains through the weekend, and some places may see strong winds and hail.
Severe weather today may feature damaging winds and tornadoes. Look pout Virginia and The Delmarva.
The outbreak of severe weather starts late today and lasts through tonight. Starts over again in the Mid-Atlantic Thursday afternoon.
Severe weather event Wednesday into Thursday could produce numerous tornadoes and wind damage reports.
Heavy storms today and Tuesday. A cluster of storms could bring some nasty weather later Wednesday through Thursday.
Andrea continues to move north up the coast with heavy rains and tornadoes.
Henry Margusity
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