Last night, I threw out the idea of the storm whipping around the trough and went with Sandy coming into N.J. I recognized the low NAO and the potential for a storm, but thought the storm would come from the trough digging in and not Sandy. But as it turned out, Sandy will be the storm that is a product of the low NAO.
My track has Sandy going in across central New Jersey and looping around eastern Pennsylvania before heading out to the Northeast. Keep in mind, Sandy will go from tropical to extra-tropical storm and the wind field will spread out. In fact, as Sandy goes through the transition, the pressure will continue to fall as she approaches the coast which is why it makes Sandy even more dangerous. It's not that Sandy has a weakening coming, but Sandy is getting stronger as it comes into the coast with a widening wind field.
The maps below show the impacts with Sandy.
Florida will be hit by severe storms. An upper-level low will move into the mid-Atlantic and produces locally heavy rains.
A cold front passing through the Southeast will produce strong storms today. An upper-level low may bring heavy rains and flooding to parts of the mid-Atlantic later this week.
Storms in the mid-Atlantic can be severe today. Pattern changes to a cooler one later this week.
A stormy time across the southern Plains today into Saturday. Flooding rains will be the main issue during the period.
Storms will be severe in the southern mid-Atlantic and in the Southern Plains. Tornadoes possible in the Plains Friday.
The focus of the severe weather will be across southern Iowa into western Illnois where storms should develop around the upper-level low.