The map below shows my scenario for the development of a nor'easter while Sandy is being whipped around the trough and getting absorbed into the developing storm. I do not buy the Euro model at all with Sandy coming full bore into the Northeast as a strong hurricane. Things like that just do not happen. What will happen, with the strongly negative NAO, in the development of a storm will most likely occur off the mid-Atlantic coast. The pattern dictates that. Even if Sandy was not in the picture, given the negative NAO, a storm would be developing there.
So what does that mean? When the storm develops, moisture from Sandy should be absorbed into the storm which will move into New England. Heavy rain and flooding will mostly like occur with gale-force winds along the coast. The storm should back west-northwest, and that could mean rain changing to wet snow in the Appalachians of Pennsylvania, West Virginia into western New York. While not the epic storm as shown by the Euro, it still will be a major storm for the Northeast.
I do think you will see the GFS come around to a storm developing off Long Island or New Jersey with time. The Euro should also change direction with time as well. Other models have started in that direction and should all come around to the solution with time as well.
Scenarios with our tropical system. Severe storms for the Midwest today.
We may see the tropics get active and produce a storm next week. We could see a storm approaching the US Gulf Coast by the Labor day weekend.
The pattern will bring heavy thunderstorms today and Wednesday. Video reviews the areas where the storms will hit.
No widespread severe weather just a few across the Midwest today.
The pattern is going to switch from the trough in the East to a trough in the West. That means warmth!
Trough in the East for now, but come changes are on the way for next week.