Henry Margusity

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Next Snow Event Western Great Lakes. Weekend Storm? Big Daddy Next Week?

February 14, 2012; 7:53 AM ET

Disco

1. The current storm is just falling apart but will continue to produce light snow across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley into the Northeast. Amounts generally will be a coating to an inch or two before it winds down.

2. The next system will come out of the Rockies Wednesday. The first part of the storm will be the severe weather from eastern Texas into southern Mississippi. That area will have storms with damaging wind gusts and heavy rain. The EHI values are not high enough to support tornadoes.

3. The second part of the storm will be the snow across the western Great Lakes into Canada and the Northeast. Amounts will exceed 3 inches in many areas with a foot of snow over parts of Ontario and Quebec as shown on the map. This areas could get smacked again next week.

4. For this weekend's storm, I like the Euro model solution because I see the NAO is not rising much anymore and is gradually sinking. I think we are starting to see the trend of the pattern as the SOI is way down again, and the pattern maybe adjusting as I talked about yesterday. The GFS should adjust north with the storm during the next couple of days. The upside is a swath of 3-6 inches of snow going from Roanoke to NYC.

5. Next week, both the Euro and GFS have the Big Daddy for the Midwest. I will get my February storm, but not along the coast, instead in the Midwest. If that storm comes true as shown, it will shut down cities in the Midwest with blizzard conitions and over a foot of snow. It would be a Cat 4, perhaps 5, storm on the chart.

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Henry Margusity
AccuWeather.com severe weather expert, Henry Margusity, offers the Meteorological Madness blog including detailed analysis of severe weather across the US.