Henry Margusity

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NAO Goes Negative and That Means the Rains Return

September 14, 2012; 8:24 AM

Commentary

Notice the NAO is going negative next week; in fact, we have been in a negative NAO most of the summer. Some studies have shown that a negative NAO during the summer means heat in the Northeast, while a negative NAO in the winter means colder, stormy weather. So one can surmise that as the jet starts to migrate south in September that a negative NAO would mean stormy weather for the Northeast which looks to be the case next week.

The system coming out of Texas and the Gulf Coast will bring a lot of rain north late in the weekend and early next week. You can see on the GFS model total rainfall that some areas can pick up 1-3 inches of rain which may cause some minor flooding problems.

Also, the pattern across the Great Lakes and Northeast will feature several pushes of chilly air the next 14 days. I would not be surprise to see snowflakes over the Upper Peninsula of Michigan in the cold pushes.

The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of AccuWeather, Inc. or AccuWeather.com

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Henry Margusity
AccuWeather.com severe weather expert, Henry Margusity, offers the Meteorological Madness blog including detailed analysis of severe weather across the US.