Notice the NAO is going negative next week; in fact, we have been in a negative NAO most of the summer. Some studies have shown that a negative NAO during the summer means heat in the Northeast, while a negative NAO in the winter means colder, stormy weather. So one can surmise that as the jet starts to migrate south in September that a negative NAO would mean stormy weather for the Northeast which looks to be the case next week.
The system coming out of Texas and the Gulf Coast will bring a lot of rain north late in the weekend and early next week. You can see on the GFS model total rainfall that some areas can pick up 1-3 inches of rain which may cause some minor flooding problems.
Also, the pattern across the Great Lakes and Northeast will feature several pushes of chilly air the next 14 days. I would not be surprise to see snowflakes over the Upper Peninsula of Michigan in the cold pushes.
A cold front will produce severe storms across the Midwest Saturday. Odile's remains will bring more flooding problems.
Heavy rains from Odile will spread across southern New Mexico into Texas. Flash flooding may occur.
Dangerous flooding will occur as Odile heads into southern Arizona.
Odile will bring some serious flooding to parts of Arizona into New Mexico.
Flash flooding will be the big story across the Southwest this week.
Low over Florida will drift into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Slow development possible.