Notice the NAO is going negative next week; in fact, we have been in a negative NAO most of the summer. Some studies have shown that a negative NAO during the summer means heat in the Northeast, while a negative NAO in the winter means colder, stormy weather. So one can surmise that as the jet starts to migrate south in September that a negative NAO would mean stormy weather for the Northeast which looks to be the case next week.
The system coming out of Texas and the Gulf Coast will bring a lot of rain north late in the weekend and early next week. You can see on the GFS model total rainfall that some areas can pick up 1-3 inches of rain which may cause some minor flooding problems.
Also, the pattern across the Great Lakes and Northeast will feature several pushes of chilly air the next 14 days. I would not be surprise to see snowflakes over the Upper Peninsula of Michigan in the cold pushes.
Sunday will be the active day for severe weather and the potential for damaging storms.
Severe weather will develop in the Midwest Sunday and tornadoes could occur with the storms.
System in the Gulf could become a TD...outbreak of severe weather Sunday.
System in the Gulf has a low chance for development the next two days.
Video today looks at the tropical storm and where it will go. No extreme storms, just a few heavy ones.
Here are the scenarios for the track of the tropical system.