I am watching the tropical feature coming through the Carolinas this morning. The models are not handling the feature very well. I have seen an enhancement of the rains through the Carolinas, and my thinking is the system continues to come north into Virginia, Pennsylvania, Maryland and New York and causes locally heavy rain and flash flooding. The HRRR simulated radars suggest that an area of excessive rains sets up from central Pennsylvania into the Catskills of New York this afternoon. Another area of excessive rains may setup along the I-95 corridor from Raleigh to New York City.
I should also mention that area of southern Illinois where heavy rains continue under the upper-level low. Some 4-inch rain amounts have occurred since last night.
A system that started in the Gulf of Mexico is coming northeast and will bring a swath of heavy rains.
A tropical low coming Northeast will produce a corridor of heavy rains.
Storms will fire over the High Plains today. Later this week, heavy rains may come north.
Severe storms will hit areas from Pennsylvania to New Jersey today. The storms will be packing high winds.
The heat is on from the Plains into the East.
The storms will continue around the edge of the heat wave.