7:45 a.m. - Not surprised to see the models are starting to agree on the snow area, but not amounts and track of the storm. It looks to me to be a 6+ snow event across the Carolinas to the western part of Virginia, through southeastern Pennsylvania into New England to Maine. High amounts will be in the 18"-22" range. Northern Alabama into the Carolinas will have significant ice and snow, enough to put the storm in historic perspectives. I put my winter storm index below. I will put it at a 4 very close to a 5.
8:15 a.m. - Looking at things more. I will introduce blizzard conditions since this storm will meet the criteria from northern Virginia into New England Thursday. Winds gusts on the operational models are shown to exceed 35 mph. Heavy snow and blowing snow will occur with visibility below 1/4 mile. This one I agree with this time.
NWS Blizzard Conditions.
(abbrev. BLZD)- A blizzard means that the following conditions are expected to prevail for a period of three hours or longer:
1. Sustained wind or frequent gusts to 35 miles an hour or greater; and
2. Considerable falling and/or blowing snow (i.e., reducing visibility frequently to less than ¼ mile)
11:10 a.m. - Latest GFS stays the course with the storm, snowfall location and wind field. The place that really gets crushed is eastern Maine where the storm finally bombs out. Still a major storm for the South.
3:00 pm - ECMWF holds on to a big storm while GFS holds on to a more easterly storm. I think the answer is a blend which goes along with the snow map and ideas posted. It's blizzard conditions from Virginia north with top amounts 18-22 inches and a swath of 12" running from the Carolina's to Maine. Looks to me that eastern Maine and west-central Virginia are the places to be. Probably will be some thundersnows with the storm as well.
Storm will cut across the South and may bring severe weather.
Blizzard like conditions across the Northeast today. Heavy storms south of the low track.
Snow to streak from the Midwest to the Northeast with almost blizzard conditions within that snow. Heavy storms may produce wind damage.
Storm this week will bring snow and heavy thunderstorms. El Nino on the way!
Models remain out of sorts on the storm next week. There will be one with some snow.
Severe weather to start the day... Icy weather tonight... Next week's storm. A lot going on.