Henry Margusity

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Latest on the Storm Next Week

March 2, 2013; 8:43 AM ET

Commentary

Not much has changed in the overall ideas of yesterday. Most of the operational models have come into agreement that the big snowstorm will be across Virginia, West Virginia into the Maryland mountains with DC and Baltimore on the edge of a major snowstorm. I adjusted the snow down from New York and New England, but will leave the door open for an adjustment north of the snow area the next 24 hours. While we have good agreement in the models, the storm has yet to move into western Canada which will occur this afternoon. Once that happens, the models will adjust north with the snow area. My own opinion, we should see a sub 990 mb low off Cape May, N.J., by Wednesday evening which would mean snow near New York City to DC and Roanoke, with up to a foot or more within that area. Not saying that New York City would get a foot of snow, but more interior areas have a better chance for that much snow. The big cities remain a tough call with the precipitation type at this time.

For the models to really see what is going on with the storm and stop the cha cha of storm positions, the storm has to get into British Columbia. Satellite images this morning show the storm just off the coast of British Columbia and once it gets into British Columbia, it will be on the model land grid as I call it and the models should make the final adjustments on Sunday. After that, it's hone-in time on snow amounts and precipitation type.

As of today, I don't believe this will be a New England storm. It's a storm for an area between southern New York and Virginia with some areas having over a foot of snow.

The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of AccuWeather, Inc. or AccuWeather.com

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Henry Margusity
AccuWeather.com severe weather expert, Henry Margusity, offers the Meteorological Madness blog including detailed analysis of severe weather across the US.