Henry Margusity

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Late-July Severe Weather Outbreak. Peak Gusts to 85 mph.

July 26, 2012; 6:47 AM

Commentary

The warm sector storms are lifting northeast this morning and that will make room for a warm sector of high dew points and temperatures in the 80s and 90s to overwhelm the threat area shown on the map. I went with the TS4 storms because of the high potential for wind damage and tornadoes within that area. The tornado threat area bounded by Albany, Binghamton to Williamsport, State College, east to Stroudsburg to Hartford to Albany.

The support for the storms will be coming from the right rear quad of a 100-knot jet passing across eastern Canada and Maine. Couple that with the front pressing southeast across Ontario into New York, Pennsylvania and Ohio, we should see storms develop around 3 p.m. this afternoon and intensify moving southeast into Pennsylvania and New York.

The Rapid Refresh map below shows the simulated radar depiction for around 5 p.m. this afternoon.

Wind gusts in the storms will exceed 60 mph with peak gusts up to 85 mph based on the 850 mb and 700 mb winds and downdrafts potential.

East of the threat area, temperatures will be off to the races with highs will up into the 90s in the big cities before the storms coming through overnight. Some storms may remain severe as the move into the I-95 corridor tonight.

My twitter feed is below for updates to check back on.

No video today or tomorrow since I am not in the office.

The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of AccuWeather, Inc. or AccuWeather.com

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Henry Margusity
AccuWeather.com severe weather expert, Henry Margusity, offers the Meteorological Madness blog including detailed analysis of severe weather across the US.