Henry Margusity

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Keep Vigilant Along the East Coast... Severe Storms Today

October 10, 2013; 10:02 AM ET


1. The NAO is going as low as it was late in October of last year. The PNA is staying slightly negative next week as well. These two factors, I believe, could lead to another storm developing along the East coast next week. While the operational models are not showing a storm just yet, they may come around and show a storm in future runs. What I see happening is this. The current coastal storm runs out to sea this weekend leaving behind a broad area of low pressure over the coast. The tail end of the that is sitting in the Bahamas could be the birth place for low pressure late in the weekend or early next week. That area of low pressure will move north and develop into the storm in response to the blocking. The storm and front in the West will slow down to allow the coastal storm to develop. I am not sure just yet on the strength of the storm and whether the storm backs into the coast of stays offshore.

2. No changes in the thinking of the severe weather today. Dew points are not exactly the highest to support tornadoes but could be sufficient for large hail and damaging winds.

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Henry Margusity
AccuWeather.com severe weather expert, Henry Margusity, offers the Meteorological Madness blog including detailed analysis of severe weather across the US.