While it remains cold across the Great Lakes and Northeast through Friday, I want to jump ahead to the storm coming up next week since that will have a greater impact. The map below shows the impact areas for the snow and potential severe weather. In Montana and Wyoming, the combination of falling temperatures, wind and snow will create near-blizzard conditions, but just how far that gets remains to be seen. It would appear that it would snow all the way down to the Colorado state line, but that is about as far south as the snow will go. Denver may just escape this one.
The GFS and ECMWF differ in the severe weather potential for Wednesday to Thursday. The GFS keeps a full latitude trough while the ECMWF splits the trough and forms a closed low. Given the typhoon situation in the western Pacific, I like the full latitude trough better. Given that, we should see a band of storms develop from Texas to Missouri.
Track of tropical system critical for development, but South Florida could be threatened first.
A new tropical system may be a threat to southern Florida late in the weekend and early next week.
The tropics will produce a storm that could impact the United States coast.
A cold front will be led by severe storms all the way to the Northeast this weekend. Tropics could produce a big storm.
A cold front coming east will produce several days of several weather. Tropics could get active next week as a big high comes down.
A cold front that will bring a change to nicer weather will also produce severe storms in the Plains first Thursday and Friday then eventually in the East this weekend.