Henry Margusity

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Isaac Track Window

August 24, 2012; 7:18 AM ET


1. Isaac appears to be going through an intensification stage this morning based on the satellite and radar data. When you see the outflow showing the gravity waves on the satellite image, that usually means good venting aloft and intensification of the storm. Just an observation I have seen over the years.

2. Below is a satellite image showing the water vapor channel. Notice the trough over Colorado. I believe that trough is the key to the track of Isaac as it comes off Cuba. The other track map shows the two possible tracks Isaac can take. If the trough is weaker and goes north, Isaac will end up in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. If the trough is stronger and goes east, it will bring Isaac up the East Coast of Florida which I have been in the camp for happening all week. I know none of the models show that possibility, but I am going to hold on to the track until I see otherwise. Yes, I know I am going out on a limb and against all models, but it just seems to me that a track into the Gulf seems odd given the trough in the Rockies and the trough associated with Joyce. I believe that Isaac will try to squeeze between the two up east of Florida.

3. Once Isaac does clear Cuba, the storm will be in position to go through another rapid intensification period. It may go to a Category 3 hurricane before making landfall. Isaac should not be taken lightly because in my mind, the storm has a lot of potential to do a considerable amount of damage and flooding once it impacts the U.S.

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Henry Margusity
AccuWeather.com severe weather expert, Henry Margusity, offers the Meteorological Madness blog including detailed analysis of severe weather across the US.