Commentary
I remain committed to a path up the East Coast of Florida into South Carolina. My reasoning is such...
1. Isaac remains weak and continues to come around the Atlantic ridge.
2. Weak trough over the central Gulf keeps Isaac east.
3. Historically, storms on the track of Isaac tend to curve north once they they move past Puerto Rico.
Steering flow would take Isaac west for a time before turning to the northwest once it reaches 70 west taking the storm close to Haiti and over the east end of Cuba. Once Isaac does get off Cuba, at that point the intensification starts and we have a whole new ballgame.
As for the models, Euro has trended to the East going from a New Orleans hit to a Mobile Bay Hit. GFS remains on the west coast for Florida which is a rare path. NAM/DGEX take the storm on my path. GFDL is trending east as are the NHC models.
Given that the center of Isaac is being adjusted almost every hour, the models are going to continue to have problems with the path.
Storms will be in the Plains through the weekend, and some places may see strong winds and hail.
Severe weather today may feature damaging winds and tornadoes. Look pout Virginia and The Delmarva.
The outbreak of severe weather starts late today and lasts through tonight. Starts over again in the Mid-Atlantic Thursday afternoon.
Severe weather event Wednesday into Thursday could produce numerous tornadoes and wind damage reports.
Heavy storms today and Tuesday. A cluster of storms could bring some nasty weather later Wednesday through Thursday.
Andrea continues to move north up the coast with heavy rains and tornadoes.
Henry Margusity
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