NOTE: I WILL BE ON VACATION FROM JULY 4 TO JULY 8. BLOG RETURNS JULY 9.
1. The distribution of severe weather the next two days is a tough one. The first impulse is making its way across the Great Lakes, and storms should develop along the warm front coming north. Basically, that front does really separate warm and cool air masses but separates dew points in the 50s versus the 70s.
I do think storms will roll all the way to Virginia by this evening, following along the warm front. I see dew points in the 70s coming up through Virginia this morning, so we need watch for severe storms enhancing coming off the West Virginia mountains.
Another band of heavy storms will develop late this afternoon across parts of southern Michigan and Ontario as the cold front slides southward.
In all cases, the storms' impacts will be mainly gusty winds and lightning.
2. The 4th, I think, with the front still tailing across the Northeast into New York, we still have the opportunity for severe storms but probably a broken line of storms as most of the support is running off the coast and away from the front.
3. A ridge is going to expand later this week, so it looks like areas from I-80 on south are going to get hot with the big cities from NYC on south heading back to the 100-degree mark.
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The band of snow and ice that develops this weekend will be bad in Kansas but more of a nuisance through the Ohio Valley.
As milder weather moves north, it will mean snow will hit the Great Lakes and Northeast today into tonight. California will get more heavy rain.