The focus of the nasty weather today will be in Colorado and the Texas Panhandle where the front is dropping south along the Front Range and the upper-level low is coming out of the southwest. The two will combine to produce rains and heavy storms across southern Colorado into New Mexico and northern Texas. Some places will pick up 1-3 inches of rain, perhaps more which can cause flash flooding problems. The southern upslope areas of Colorado are most vulnerable to the flash flooding.
Eventually, the front will become stalled across central Texas, and it would appear they have the opportunity for a few days of rain and thunderstorms.
The front itself will come east and only produce showers and a few thunderstorms because the air mass is rather dry.
Next week, the NAO goes very negative so one should start watching for a lot of rain across the eastern part of the country, especially the Northeast and mid-Atlantic.
One more day of tornadoes, some which can be large and devastating.
Tornadoes could be worse today given the jet coming out into the Plains.
We are going into a five- to seven-day period of severe weather which will include tornadoes. We could see over 100 reports of tornadoes.
Latest map on the severe weather areas this weekend into Monday. Monday could be the big day.
Marginal severe weather the rest of the week, but the weekend could turn ugly in the Plains as the tornadoes return.
Tornadoes remain low but that may change this weekend.