The focus of the nasty weather today will be in Colorado and the Texas Panhandle where the front is dropping south along the Front Range and the upper-level low is coming out of the southwest. The two will combine to produce rains and heavy storms across southern Colorado into New Mexico and northern Texas. Some places will pick up 1-3 inches of rain, perhaps more which can cause flash flooding problems. The southern upslope areas of Colorado are most vulnerable to the flash flooding.
Eventually, the front will become stalled across central Texas, and it would appear they have the opportunity for a few days of rain and thunderstorms.
The front itself will come east and only produce showers and a few thunderstorms because the air mass is rather dry.
Next week, the NAO goes very negative so one should start watching for a lot of rain across the eastern part of the country, especially the Northeast and mid-Atlantic.
Temperatures will be swinging around but the warmth will end up winning.
Heavy storms will hit parts of New Mexico and western Texas.
Heavy storms will hit parts of New Mexico with heavy rains and gusty winds.
The band of heavy rains should end tonight, allowing drier weather to move in.
Heavy rains associated with the upper-level low will hit the Carolinas into Virginia. Some areas could get over a foot of rain by Monday!
The heavy rains are still coming and someone is going to have up to a foot of rain and flooding.