The focus of the nasty weather today will be in Colorado and the Texas Panhandle where the front is dropping south along the Front Range and the upper-level low is coming out of the southwest. The two will combine to produce rains and heavy storms across southern Colorado into New Mexico and northern Texas. Some places will pick up 1-3 inches of rain, perhaps more which can cause flash flooding problems. The southern upslope areas of Colorado are most vulnerable to the flash flooding.
Eventually, the front will become stalled across central Texas, and it would appear they have the opportunity for a few days of rain and thunderstorms.
The front itself will come east and only produce showers and a few thunderstorms because the air mass is rather dry.
Next week, the NAO goes very negative so one should start watching for a lot of rain across the eastern part of the country, especially the Northeast and mid-Atlantic.
Sunday will be the active day for severe weather and the potential for damaging storms.
Severe weather will develop in the Midwest Sunday and tornadoes could occur with the storms.
System in the Gulf could become a TD...outbreak of severe weather Sunday.
System in the Gulf has a low chance for development the next two days.
Video today looks at the tropical storm and where it will go. No extreme storms, just a few heavy ones.
Here are the scenarios for the track of the tropical system.