1. I will continue to preach that during this current weather pattern, the short-range operational models are not doing a good job handling events past 84 hours. Case in point, both the Euro and GFS say that a cold wave is coming next week, but the PNA, NAO, MJO say that it should be warm during that period and not cold. That's conflicting information between the models. So for now, just stick with the near-term forecasts.
2. The upper low over the Southwest will move into the High Plains the next couple of days and should kick off big hailstorms from Texas to the Kansas. There could be a couple of tornadoes mixed in, but I think the impacts are mainly wind and large hail.
Pattern this weekend will feature a storm in the northern Plains and up-and-down heat in the East.
The moonson will bring some nasty weather to the Southwestern part of the country.
Watching the system in the Gulf of Mexico for development. Probably a small chance.
Heat builds into the East while the rain continues for the Pacific Northwest.
Erika will have many issues this weekend includng tracking over the islands with big mountains.