The images below are from the NMM model showing the simulated radar for Tuesday and the total rainfall through Wed morning. As you can see, we have a squall line shown clearly on the simulated radar from NY to Virginia. It's going to be one of those thin lines of storms with heavy rains and gusty winds, but very little lightning. When the line goes through winds will whip-up to over 40 mph and the rain will be intense.
I think given the recent dry weather, most areas should be able to handle the heavy rains. Flooding will be confined to urban flooding and small streams and creeks.
Pattern this weekend will feature a storm in the northern Plains and up-and-down heat in the East.
The moonson will bring some nasty weather to the Southwestern part of the country.
Watching the system in the Gulf of Mexico for development. Probably a small chance.
Heat builds into the East while the rain continues for the Pacific Northwest.
Erika will have many issues this weekend includng tracking over the islands with big mountains.