Henry Margusity

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First Look at the Snow Tuesday and Wednesday... GFS Big Daddy

February 11, 2013; 10:40 AM ET


We remain in a very active weather pattern, one that will continue to yield snowstorms. The GFS is obviously the model of choice with a major snow event this weekend in the Northeast. The ECMWF seems to be lagging behind any snow events this weekend, but that may change this afternoon when the next run comes in. Remember, this time last week, no one was talking about a blizzard of the magnitude that hit Friday in New England, so given that, I am keeping all options open. The NAO remains around the neutral side of things and the PNA the same. Hey, we had a historic storm with a neutral to slightly positive NAO and PNA. In the end, it was all about the phasing and ocean temperatures.

The storm coming Tuesday and Wednesday will spread snow from Kansas/Oklahoma to New England. This is of some concern on the northern extent of the snow, but I think I-80 and maybe a little above will be the most northern extent of the snow. The operational models are pointing to D.C. to have the first major snow of the season. 12z NAM model shows 6 inches of snow while the ECMWF keeps them in the coating to 1 inch range. I went with a possible area for now until the it becomes more clear on snow amounts and where exactly the snow will fall.

Video to come shortly.

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Henry Margusity
AccuWeather.com severe weather expert, Henry Margusity, offers the Meteorological Madness blog including detailed analysis of severe weather across the US.