7:30 a.m. - I just starting to look at things. My first impression is that this is our first storm to come up the coast from the Gulf of Mexico this year so it is coming with a lot of moisture. GFS is east and Euro west with the storm. Either way, both bring a lot of snow depending on the track. First guess is high amounts in the 12- to 24-inch range.
8:00 a.m. - The thing that makes me wonder about the ECMWF solution is that the NAO and PNA have not changed much and we are not getting a ridge building along the West coast to buckle the trough in the East.
9:00 a.m. - The point I am trying to get across is the magnitude of the storm. Is it a 12- to 24-inch storm or 6- to 14-inch storm. For the South and Carolinas, it's another disaster of a winter storm.
10 a.m. - NAM takes the storm East, but still a big snow event for the mid-Atlantic and South.
11:45am - GFS slides storm out to sea, but still a big snow event for the Carolina's into Virginia. Maybe the ECWMF will be right this time, but again, the pattern has not changed from last week so my concern remains for a weaker storm with high amounts around a foot.
1:45pm - The battle of the ECMWF and GFS begins. ECMWF has 986mb low near Cape May, GFS 996mb out to sea.
Here are the scenarios for the track of the tropical system.
Scenarios with our tropical system. Severe storms for the Midwest today.
We may see the tropics get active and produce a storm next week. We could see a storm approaching the US Gulf Coast by the Labor day weekend.
The pattern will bring heavy thunderstorms today and Wednesday. Video reviews the areas where the storms will hit.
No widespread severe weather just a few across the Midwest today.
The pattern is going to switch from the trough in the East to a trough in the West. That means warmth!