Henry Margusity

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First Gulf of Mexico Snowstorm

February 10, 2014; 7:40 AM

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7:30 a.m. - I just starting to look at things. My first impression is that this is our first storm to come up the coast from the Gulf of Mexico this year so it is coming with a lot of moisture. GFS is east and Euro west with the storm. Either way, both bring a lot of snow depending on the track. First guess is high amounts in the 12- to 24-inch range.

8:00 a.m. - The thing that makes me wonder about the ECMWF solution is that the NAO and PNA have not changed much and we are not getting a ridge building along the West coast to buckle the trough in the East.

9:00 a.m. - The point I am trying to get across is the magnitude of the storm. Is it a 12- to 24-inch storm or 6- to 14-inch storm. For the South and Carolinas, it's another disaster of a winter storm.

10 a.m. - NAM takes the storm East, but still a big snow event for the mid-Atlantic and South.

11:45am - GFS slides storm out to sea, but still a big snow event for the Carolina's into Virginia. Maybe the ECWMF will be right this time, but again, the pattern has not changed from last week so my concern remains for a weaker storm with high amounts around a foot.

1:45pm - The battle of the ECMWF and GFS begins. ECMWF has 986mb low near Cape May, GFS 996mb out to sea.

The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of AccuWeather, Inc. or AccuWeather.com

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Henry Margusity
AccuWeather.com severe weather expert, Henry Margusity, offers the Meteorological Madness blog including detailed analysis of severe weather across the US.