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    Henry Margusity

    Euro Historic, GFS Weaker, Other Models Inbetween

    10/22/2012, 5:53:59 AM

    Commentary

    The weather pattern is just about as wild as one you will see for late October. I posted maps for the thunderstorms today in the Midwest and the potential snowfall coming midweek. The storms today will be mainly hail and high wind producers as they move through Illinois into Indiana.

    The BIG Storm

    Here's what I think will happen with the storm late in the weekend and into early next week.

    The NAO is becoming highly negative which to me means a big storm is coming, but it's a question of when does the storm come and will the storm be Sandy or not? Typically, tropical systems will ride along the outer part of the trough which I think will be the case with Sandy. The map below shows the upper-level low coming into the Midwest with low pressure in Ohio. A cold front will extend into the South, and a warm front will be located across Virginia. Sandy will come up the coast, being whipped around the outer part of the trough. Once Sandy is out of the way, low pressure will redevelop along the coast in the classic secondary style and that will become the storm.

    I do not believe the historic event shown by the Euro is correct only because tropical systems very rarely try to plow under an upper-level low like what the Euro shows.


    590x392_10221349_severe1

    590x392_10221331_severe2

    590x451_10221330_severe1


    The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of AccuWeather, Inc. or AccuWeather.com

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    Henry Margusity