The weather pattern is just about as wild as one you will see for late October. I posted maps for the thunderstorms today in the Midwest and the potential snowfall coming midweek. The storms today will be mainly hail and high wind producers as they move through Illinois into Indiana.
The BIG Storm
Here's what I think will happen with the storm late in the weekend and into early next week.
The NAO is becoming highly negative which to me means a big storm is coming, but it's a question of when does the storm come and will the storm be Sandy or not? Typically, tropical systems will ride along the outer part of the trough which I think will be the case with Sandy. The map below shows the upper-level low coming into the Midwest with low pressure in Ohio. A cold front will extend into the South, and a warm front will be located across Virginia. Sandy will come up the coast, being whipped around the outer part of the trough. Once Sandy is out of the way, low pressure will redevelop along the coast in the classic secondary style and that will become the storm.
I do not believe the historic event shown by the Euro is correct only because tropical systems very rarely try to plow under an upper-level low like what the Euro shows.
The tropics could certainly be the main focus late in the weekend into early next week. Coastal storm will bring rain and wind.
Coastal storm will bring rain to the Northeast and maybe some wet snow over the hills. More rain for the Pac NW. development slow in the Gulf.
The tropics remain the big problem in the weather. Ana could hit the Pacific Northwest, Gonzalo will hit Europe, and development may occur in the Gulf.
Bermuda will get hit hard today by Gonzalo while in the Pacific, Ana will go south of Hawaii with only minimal impacts.
Heavy rains will affect the Northeast...Ana will bring some impacts to Hawaii...Gonzalo will be a disaster to Bermuda.
The band of heavy rains and storms will continue to move east and could get severe in New England.