Commentary
The weather pattern is just about as wild as one you will see for late October. I posted maps for the thunderstorms today in the Midwest and the potential snowfall coming midweek. The storms today will be mainly hail and high wind producers as they move through Illinois into Indiana.
The BIG Storm
Here's what I think will happen with the storm late in the weekend and into early next week.
The NAO is becoming highly negative which to me means a big storm is coming, but it's a question of when does the storm come and will the storm be Sandy or not? Typically, tropical systems will ride along the outer part of the trough which I think will be the case with Sandy. The map below shows the upper-level low coming into the Midwest with low pressure in Ohio. A cold front will extend into the South, and a warm front will be located across Virginia. Sandy will come up the coast, being whipped around the outer part of the trough. Once Sandy is out of the way, low pressure will redevelop along the coast in the classic secondary style and that will become the storm.
I do not believe the historic event shown by the Euro is correct only because tropical systems very rarely try to plow under an upper-level low like what the Euro shows.
Severe weather for the Ohio Valley and Northeast today.
One more day of tornadoes, some which can be large and devastating.
Tornadoes could be worse today given the jet coming out into the Plains.
We are going into a five- to seven-day period of severe weather which will include tornadoes. We could see over 100 reports of tornadoes.
Latest map on the severe weather areas this weekend into Monday. Monday could be the big day.
Marginal severe weather the rest of the week, but the weekend could turn ugly in the Plains as the tornadoes return.
Henry Margusity
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