The ECMWF model switched the storm to the Midwest and is now showing a storm that attacks the high and producing a swath of snow from Iowa to Pennsylvania per the image below. The GFS shows the same thing but is not as aggressive with the storm attacking the high. The answer lies somewhere between the two since the NAO remains slightly positive. I do think we have wintry weather next week, just not sure where the zone will be right now.
In the longer range, i still think winter gets going after Thanksgiving. The pattern should produce a trough in the East and plenty of snow and mix events.
A cold front moving across the Northeast will produce severe storms. The High Plains will also have severe storms and maybe tornadoes.
The bulk of the severe storms will stay on the High Plains today and Tuesday.
Severe weather will hit the Upper Midwest and southern Canada. It could be a tornado day!
Another big day for severe weather. Damaging winds and even a few tornadoes possible today.
Two major days of severe weather. First day in the Ohio Valley and the second day in West Virginia and Virginia.
Two potential nasty days of severe weather due to a highly unusual strong jet stream moving through,