Below is a map of the path that I predict Ernesto will take over the next week. It would appear that Ernesto will enter the Gulf of Mexico sometime after midweek. I am thinking that southern Texas may be the place that Ernesto lands next weekend.
The system along the Southeast has a small chance of development. Sometimes when a tropical wave interacts with an old frontal boundary and thunderstorms get going, a tropical system can spin up rather quickly. It's something we need to watch this weekend. In any case, we may see an increase in thunderstorms in Florida and and along the Southeast coast this weekend.
Severe weather starts in the northern Plains today and cascades into the Great Lakes Saturday then New York and Pennsylvania on Sunday. Wind damage will be the main threat, but given the strength of the jet and shear, a few tornadoes can spin up within some of the supercells that develop. The trough goes negative on Sunday, and that means the storms could get a bit more frisky across New York and Pennsylvania.
We are going into a five- to seven-day period of severe weather which will include tornadoes. We could see over 100 reports of tornadoes.
Latest map on the severe weather areas this weekend into Monday. Monday could be the big day.
Marginal severe weather the rest of the week, but the weekend could turn ugly in the Plains as the tornadoes return.
Tornadoes remain low but that may change this weekend.
More severe weather today into Saturday in the form of hail and damaging winds.
Storms will produce hail and strong winds today and Friday. Maybe a tornado or two in Texas.