Below is a map of the path that I predict Ernesto will take over the next week. It would appear that Ernesto will enter the Gulf of Mexico sometime after midweek. I am thinking that southern Texas may be the place that Ernesto lands next weekend.
The system along the Southeast has a small chance of development. Sometimes when a tropical wave interacts with an old frontal boundary and thunderstorms get going, a tropical system can spin up rather quickly. It's something we need to watch this weekend. In any case, we may see an increase in thunderstorms in Florida and and along the Southeast coast this weekend.
Severe weather starts in the northern Plains today and cascades into the Great Lakes Saturday then New York and Pennsylvania on Sunday. Wind damage will be the main threat, but given the strength of the jet and shear, a few tornadoes can spin up within some of the supercells that develop. The trough goes negative on Sunday, and that means the storms could get a bit more frisky across New York and Pennsylvania.
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Storm is coming up the coast but will only skirt New England. Heat follows into the East.
Florida gets drenched and the same storm skirts New England
The same storm that produces severe weather will produce a major storm this weekend.
The stormy weather pattern today will turn into a chilly blocking pattern this weekend.