Henry Margusity

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ECMWF vs GFS Again on the Storm

November 05, 2013; 10:38 AM


So we are once again faced with the ECMWF vs. GFS for a storm within the 10-day time period. The ECMWF looks a little out there this morning, but what really bothers me is the difference between the weeklies and the operational run on the ECMWF. Week two of the weeklies has warmth over the eastern part of the country, but the operational model for the same week as a trough which would imply cold weather. In addition, the NAO is not going negative and the typhoon is not recurving, so there is a lot of indications that the ECMWF run is just wrong. However, sometimes the ECMWF hits a home run and it's possible the model is actually on to something. The implications of the ECMWF run would be snow across the mid-Atlantic for that time period.

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Henry Margusity
AccuWeather.com severe weather expert, Henry Margusity, offers the Meteorological Madness blog including detailed analysis of severe weather across the US.